Ruida Futures: Shanghai Nickel Fluctuates Slightly, Long and Short Differences are Large

Internal and external trends: LME nickel fell slightly on Tuesday. As of 15:00 Beijing time, three-month LME nickel reported $15,135/ton, down 0.43% daily. Shanghai Nickel’s main 2012 contract fluctuated slightly, with a daily maximum of 117,610 yuan/ton, a minimum of 116,260 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 117,100 yuan/ton, which was 0.02% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day; the trading volume was 500,868 contracts, and the daily decrease was 29,957; open positions 108946 hands, a daily reduction of 1563 hands. The basis is 300 yuan/ton; the price difference of Shanghai nickel from 2012 to 2101 is 120 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) Senior ECB officials have stepped up calls on governments to continue to provide financial support to help the economy recover from the new crown epidemic and warn against withdrawing relief measures prematurely. (2) According to data from 51BXG, the domestic crude stainless steel volume in September continued to increase by 24,000 tons from the previous month to 2.686 million tons, an increase of 0.9%; an increase of 330,000 tons, an increase of 14%, compared with the same period last year. Production in October is expected to continue to increase by 73,000 tons, an increase of 2.7%; an increase of 487,000 tons, an increase of 21.4%, year-on-year.

Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic nickel quoted at RMB 116,100-118,700/ton on October 13, with an average price of RMB 117,400/ton and a daily increase of RMB 300/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that traders are actively shipping, demanding high sentiment, receiving goods atmosphere is not good, and the overall transaction is weak.

Warehouse receipts inventory: On Tuesday, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts totaled 26091 tons, a daily reduction of 17 tons; on October 12, LME nickel inventory was 235,902 tons, a daily reduction of 168 tons.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Nickel's main 2012 contract were 72,079 hands, with a daily decrease of 522 hands, a short position of 72,247 hands, a daily decrease of 1026 hands, a net short position of 168 hands, a daily decrease of 504 hands, both long and short positions, and a decrease in headroom.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai Nickel 2012 fluctuated slightly on October 13. The domestic nickel ore supply is in a tight pattern. The price of nickel ore continues to rise, and the domestic trade price of nickel ore in Indonesia continues to increase, which further increases the cost of ferronickel smelting. At the same time, the output of downstream stainless steel remains high, and the better demand drives the inventory to drop slightly. The price forms support. However, the new round of stimulus policies in the United States still lacks substantial progress, and the expectation of continued easing policies in Europe has slowed the decline of the dollar; and Indonesia's new ferronickel production capacity continues to be released, and the return of ferronickel is gradually increasing; the superimposed import window is reopened. It will also stimulate the inflow of overseas sources and put some pressure on nickel prices. Technically, Shanghai Nickel's main 2012 contract has shrunk and reduced its position, with large differences between longs and shorts. Short-term shock adjustments are expected. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the 116000-119000 yuan/ton range, with a stop loss of 1000 yuan/ton each.

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