SunSirs: Caustic Soda Supply SideTightened and Its Price Rose

Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda has risen. The average market price in Shandong at the beginning of October was 452.5 RMB/ton. On October 12, the average market price was 492.5 RMB/ton. The price increased by 8.84% and fell by 41.37% in the same period last year.

On October 11, the caustic soda commodity index was 67.63, which was the same as previous day. It was 67.31% lower than the highest point of 206.87 points (2017-11-14), and 3.87% higher than the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Analysis review   

The domestic liquid caustic soda price was operating weakly before the holiday, the upstream had a strong sense of price, and the downstream demand was weak. October is the traditional peak season, and there is certain support on the demand side. October is also the peak period for maintenance. Shandong Jinling unexpectedly shut down the 100,000-ton production line. And during the National Day holiday, due to the obstruction of the highway transportation of liquid chlorine, some chlor-alkali enterprises' commodity chlorine was unsalable, and the operating rate of some chlor-alkali enterprises was lowered, which supported some manufacturers to increase the price of caustic soda. For liquid caustic soda, some manufacturers in Shandong, such as Befar Group, Shihua Chemical, and Lutai Chemical, have substantially increased their ex-factory prices. The caustic soda market performed smoothly, with little change in transactions. Currently, 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda: 400-500 RMB/ton for Shandong market, 1500-1600 RMB/ton (100% off) for Inner Mongolia market, 500-570 RMB/ton for Jiangsu market. Among them, the ex-factory quotations of liquid caustic soda companies in Shandong and Hebei have been raised by 10-30 RMB/ton, and some surrounding companies have shown upward intentions. But the overall situation is still mainly on the sidelines.

During the National Day holiday, due to the limited transportation of liquid chlorine in some areas and the expansion of liquid chlorine storage, the operating rate of caustic soda companies has decreased, the supply has decreased, and the terminal reception has been stable. Manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei took the opportunity to increase their ex-factory prices.

Demand: On the downstream side, the alumina industry has maintained relatively high profits recently, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to perform strongly. The demand for caustic soda has improved slightly, and the price of caustic soda has risen slightly.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 40th week of 2020 (10.5-10.9), the chlor-alkali industry price rise and fall list includes 2 commodities, 0 commodities with declines, and 3 commodities with 0 fluctuations. The main commodities that rose were: PVC (0.56%) and calcium carbide (0.12%); the average increase or decrease this week was 0.14%.

Market outlook

SunSirs analysts believe that high-speed embargoes in Shandong and other places support liquid chlorine prices to remain high, and the overall start of chlor-alkali plants is expected to remain high. The supply of caustic soda market is under pressure. From the perspective of the overall increase in the price of caustic soda, the downstream acceptance is not high, showing a wait-and-see situation. However, October is the traditional peak season, and there is a certain degree of support on the demand side. October is also the peak period for maintenance, and the supply side may be tightened. On the whole, the price of caustic soda may be stable in the short-term, depending on the downstream market demand.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with suooort@sunsirs.com.