SunSirs: Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, Chinese Soybean Oil and Palm Oil are Soaring

According to SunSirs data monitoring: Soybean oil palm oil went through a short dormant period in September, and began to exert force in the middle of the month, and the price continued to rise. The mainstream price of soybean oil was close to 7,200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of palm oil was close to 7,000 yuan/ton. . As of September 21, the average market price of soybean oil was RMB 7,616/ton, an increase of 12.56% from the price in early September; the average market price of palm oil was RMB 6,966/ton, an increase of 10.5% from the price in early September.

According to the monthly increase and decrease of soybean oil in August 2019-2020, it can be seen that in 2019, soybean oil rose more and fell less, and the overall increase was the main one. The increase in August was the highest, with an increase of more than 13%. Soybean oil rose sharply in October and December in the fourth quarter.

In the first 8 months of 2020, soybean oil rose and fell flat, falling for 4 months, rising for 4 months, and continued to fall from January to April. The largest decline in February was more than 16%. The soybean oil market recovered from May to August, and July The largest increase was more than 12%, and it rose by more than 7 points in August.

According to the monthly rise and fall of palm oil from August 2019 to 2020, it can be seen that palm oil was generally strong in 2019, rising for 7 months, with the highest increase of more than 17%. Palm oil rose sharply in the fourth quarter for three consecutive months, with the highest increase in December.

In the first eight months of 2020, the rise and fall are also flat, consistent with the trend of soybean oil. The first four months have been falling, with the largest decline exceeding 20%. Palm oil prices returned to the rising channel from May to August, and the increase in July was larger, exceeding 12 %. Palm oil rose more than 6% in August.

Long-short game Soybean oil palm oil low oscillation period at the beginning of the month

At the beginning of September, primary and secondary schools continued to start school. Terminal rigid demand increased. The market was mainly bullish. However, due to the lack of confidence at the bottom, palm oil mainly increased production cycles, decreased export data, and increased pressure on soybean oil inventories, so soybean oil palm oil Futures rose and fell, and the spot market was in a period of low oscillation. As of September 13, the average soybean oil market price was 6,886 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77% from the beginning of September; the average palm oil market price was 6,314 yuan/ton, and the price rose 0.16%.

Futures rose sharply to mid-soy palm oil soaring again

Beginning on September 13, soybean oil palm oil resumed its soaring pattern, and the spot prices of futures all rose sharply, with a single-day increase of 130-150 yuan/ton. The double festival is approaching, supported by terminal rigid demand, coupled with the favorable report data, palm oil export data increased. From September 1 to 20, 2020, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 103,5041 tons, an increase of 9.4% from the previous month.

Supported by multiple bullish factors, soybean oil palm oil futures rose sharply. On September 21, the main Y2101 contract of soybean oil futures was 7,446 yuan, an increase of 160 yuan; the main P2101 contract of palm oil futures was 6,480 yuan, an increase of 142 yuan. The spot price rose with the market, and the increase was also 150 yuan/ton.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the terminal stock market is boosted, the futures market is boosted, soy oil palm oil continues to stage a surge in the market, the price is already at a high level, this surge may be difficult to continue, the market outlook may will usher in a slight callback.

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