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SunSirs: All the Profits are out, China's Soybean Meal may Dive High

September 17 2020 07:52:41     SunSirs (Linda)

According to SunSirs data monitoring, after the short-term swing of soybean meal in September, the US soybean weather theme was hyped, and the bullish support. Soybean meal began to exert force in the second week, and the price ushered in a sharp rise. It rose to the 14th, and the average soybean meal market price was 3,152 yuan/ton. The price has risen by more than 5% from the beginning of September. This week the price has slightly corrected. As of September 16, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,127 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% from the price in early September.

According to the monthly rise and fall of soybean meal from January 2019 to September 2020, it can be seen that in 2019, soybean meal fell more and rose less throughout the year. The main months of the big increase were April, May, August, and October, with the largest increase in May. , Rose 17.53%, followed by August, rose more than 10%. The biggest decline was in February, falling more than 7%. Overall, the performance of soybean meal in 2019 was relatively average.

In the first eight months of 2020, soybean meal still fell more and rose less. It rose for three months, namely February, March and July. The maximum increase in March was over 15%, and the maximum decrease in April was over 11%. Compared with 2019, August soybean meal did not usher in a sharp rise, and September soybean meal began to reverse the situation. Because July and August are the best time for the US soybean weather theme, the basic speculation in September is coming to an end, and the output is a foregone conclusion.

Bullish atmosphere fades, soybean meal continues to pull back

Beginning in September, the news was more supportive, the weather theme of US soybeans reappeared, coupled with the decline in the USDA report, the price of US soybeans in external markets continued to rise, the performance of soybean meal futures was eye-catching, and the futures market supported the soybean meal spot price to return to 3,000 yuan Closed, the increase once exceeded 5%.

Beginning in mid-September, the price of soybean meal has risen sluggishly, and the price has ushered in a slight correction. The mainstream price is still at 3100 yuan/ton. Prior to the soybean meal price was mainly affected by the US soybean weather, the bullish news was digested by the market, and the price fell mainly, with a decline of about 50 yuan/ton.

High inventories, soybean meal may continue to fall

From the beginning of the second quarter, the main reason for the lack of growth in soybean meal was the high inventory pressure. The double festival approached, and the feed mills started stocking. In mid-September, soybean meal stocks declined, but the amount of imported soybeans to Hong Kong continued to increase. Imported soybeans in August Although the quantity has declined, it still reaches more than 9 million tons, soybean oil prices continue to rise, the operating rate of oil plants has increased, and soybean meal stocks are still at a high level, 1.1 million tons.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that near the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the soybean meal stocking market is gradually ending, and the inventory pressure is still there. The price of soybean meal is under pressure in the future, or will continue to fall.

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