SunSirs: August Shock Market Ended, can China LPG Market Rise in September?

In August, the LPG civil market (Shandong) showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the fluctuation range was relatively limited during the period. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on August 1 was 3,116.67 RMB/ ton, and that on August 31 was 3,176.67 RMB/ ton. During the period, the average price rose by 1.93% and decreased by 30.69% compared with January 1.

In August, the LPG market continued the rise in July, and the focus continued to move upward. There were more favorable conditions in the month, supporting the market to rise again. However, due to the traditional off-season has not passed; the market is still negative, showing a volatile upward trend in the month.

In August, the international crude oil market continued to release good news. The US crude oil inventory decreased sharply, the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (JMMC) put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeded the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and the crude oil production decreased. International crude oil prices rose in August, with WTI crude oil futures up 7.15%.

On the whole, the LPG civil market in August was still affected by seasonal factors, the shipment was weak, the terminal market demand was limited, and most of the downstream market entry enthusiasm was general, and most manufacturers' inventory was in the middle and high level. However, the September CP price was released at the end of August, propane remained stable compared with the previous month, and butane increased by $10/ ton, although the increase was less than expected, it also brought some positive support to the market. With the arrival of the traditional sales season, the demand is expected to improve, but the negative factors still exist, and the market supply will be slightly increased in September. It is expected that China LPG will rise slightly in the short term. In the long run, September and October may have a substantial upward trend.

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