SunSirs: The Price of China LNG Hovered at a Low Level and Rose hardly in July

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on July 29 was 2,463.33 RMB/ ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.82% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 0.14% month on month, and decreased by 23.81% compared with the same period last year.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

In July, the domestic LNG market rose slightly, but the price was always hovering at a low level with limited fluctuation, and the way up was extremely difficult. At the beginning of the month, the price was running smoothly. Since the middle of the month, due to the high inventory of the LNG plant in the early stage, the manufacturer reduced the price to clear the warehouse, and the shipment was improved. At the same time, considering the cost, enterprises adjusted the price according to the trend, but the increase was not large, and the price adjustment range was mostly within 50 RMB. After the rise, it faced the situation of callback, and the price was in a sticky state, with a dilemma. Near the end of the month, the market is relatively calm, affected by COVID-19 in Xinjiang, shipment pressure, price down. At present, the supply side is still in a relaxed state. In terms of early maintenance enterprises, Huanggang, Hubei Province, etc. shut down. The surrounding areas are supported by this favorable situation, and the prices rise. However, the demand in the off-season consumption is not high, and it is difficult to boost the market by suppressing part of the demand by superimposing the plum rain season in the south. In the short term, the trend of domestic LNG market tends to be stable and mainly fluctuates in a narrow range.

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of July 29, the average price of domestic LNG was about 2,460 RMB/ ton, that of Inner Mongolia was about 2,470 RMB/ ton, that of Shaanxi was 2,480 RMB/ ton, that of Shanxi was 2,490 RMB/ ton, and that of Xinjiang was 3,200 RMB/ ton.

Market Forecast

LNG analysts from SunSirs believe that China domestic LNG market rose as a whole in July. However, the rising space in the off-season consumption is limited, and the price is always hovering at a low level. In the short term, it is expected that the price will remain low and stable. With the maintenance plan of some LNG plants in the future market, the on-site supply will decrease, which may boost the market and usher in a wavelet upward trend.

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