SunSirs: Domestic Petroleum Coke Market Rose First and Then Fell in September

1. Price Data

According to the data from SunSirs, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in September was 1,228.80 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 1,206.60 RMB/ton at the end of the month, falling 22.20 RMB/ton in the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of -1.81%. In September, the market price of petroleum coke rose first and then fell.

The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on September 30 was 93.85, unchanged from the day before, down 39.68% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 40.30% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In September, petroleum coke delivery was stable as a whole, with low stocks in the first ten days, and prices were rising due to the dramatic rise in international crude oil. In the second ten days, refineries cleared their stocks before the holidays, as well as restrictions on refineries’ transportation vehicles, it was difficult for purchasing enterprises to dispatch vehicles. Petroleum coke prices fell 20-60 RMB/ton last month.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the US WTI crude oil was $56.71/barrel at the beginning of the month, and $55.91/barrel at the end of the month, the monthly rise and fall was -1.41%; Brent crude oil was $61.08/barrel at the beginning of the month, it was $61.91/barrel at the end of the month, the monthly decline was 1.36%. In September, the crude oil market rose in panic because of the attack on Saudi oil equipment; since the attack, the situation has stabilized, Saudi Arabia has not reduced oil exports, and U.S. inventories have increased, and international oil prices have fallen sharply. Downstream: before the National holidays, the environmental protection inspection in the area was strict, and some enterprises had reduced emissions by about 30%. However, at present, it has little influence on calcined coke enterprises, and the transaction is stable. Domestic aluminium ingot prices rose first and then fell in September. Prices of aluminium ingots continued to run strongly in August. Prices of aluminium ingots began to decline after the Mid-Autumn Festival. As of September 27, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) was 14,046.67 RMB/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were eleven kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in September 2019, of which four kinds of commodities had increased by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were methanol (15.85%), dimethyl ether (13.70%) and gasoline (6.36%). There were five kinds of commodities that had declined annually, two of which had declined by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines were liquefied natural gas (-6.05%), coke (-5.50%) and coking coal (-3.98%). The month's average rise and fall was 2.2%.

3. Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke in SunSirs predict that there is no obvious advantage downstream, and due to the impact of environmental protection, transportation and other factors, the trend of petroleum coke in October is expected to be weaker, with in the price range of 1,050-1,250 RMB/ton.

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