SunSirs: PET Market Soared and Fell Sharply (9.16-9.20)

1.Price Trend

According to the data monitored by SunSirs, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted RMB 7187.5 yuan/ton on September 16, and PET water bottle manufacturers quoted RMB 7200 yuan/ton on September 20, the overall price increase was 0.17%. This week, the price of PET rose sharply and fell sharply.

2.Cause analysis

Product aspect: On September 17, boosted by the soaring crude oil, raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market soared sharply. Driven by good cost, the price of PET began to rise sharply, with a daily increase of 4.17%, reaching the peak of 7487.5 yuan/ton this month. However, the price of raw material PTA began to fall the next day, the price of ethylene glycol began to fall, and the price of PET began to continue to fall. The weekend has fallen to the level at the beginning of the week. At present, the start-up load of the polyester plant is about 89.82%, with a slight decrease in the ring ratio. The production and marketing of polyester is about 28%, the production and marketing is low, the market trading atmosphere is not high, and the downstream wait-and-see attitude is strong. As of September 20, the mainstream quotation range of PET water bottle manufacturers is about RMB 7100-7300 yuan/ton.

Material aspect: PTA supply is sufficient at present, and there are plans to add new equipment, but there are many news about new capacity put into operation in the market, which will cause worries about supply, or will suppress the market. This week, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated a lot, but the decline was lower than the increase. The overall price of ethylene glycol is still higher than last week. Inventories in the main port have declined, while the plant has been operating steadily, and the downstream production and marketing rate is low. It is expected that ethylene glycol will enter a turbulent pattern in the near future.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 37th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). The top three commodities are LLDPE (4.24%), cis-butadiene rubber (3.08%) and PA6 (3.04%). There are three kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio: PA66 (-1.27%), PS (-0.84%) and EPS (-0.73%). This week's average rise and fall was 1.31%.

3.Future Market Forecast

PET analysts believe that the price of PET has fallen due to the negative impact of cost, but demand-side purchasing attitude is still low, wait-and-see is the main factor, the actual volume is weak, and the trend of PET is expected to remain weak in the short term.

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