SunSirs: Energy, Tangshan Production Limit Policy Relaxed, Coke Fluctruated under Pressure

Futures: Coke cut back on Wednesday, closing 1,819 (down 18.5), with a total reduction of more than 6,000 positions and fine-tuning volume. At present, the operation rate of blast furnace is high, the demand is strong, the coke inventory continues to drop, the second round of increase of coke is implemented in the steel plant by 50, and the spot price is strong. During the two sessions, Tangshan Iron and Steel coking and other industries increased environmental protection and production restriction, but last night, the policy suddenly relaxed, hitting the market to do sentimental; some long futures concentrated positions, short selling pressure increased, and the pressure on futures market fell. Short term or high pressure shock wash dish, pay attention to market supply and demand and policy expected changes, prevent capital concentration changes.

Spot: in recent years, the second round of 50 RMB price increase of coke has been implemented in many steel mills. The spot prices of Rizhao and Qingdao port coke are strong, and the cost from the production area is increased: quasi first grade coke 1,780, first grade coke 1,880. During the two sessions, coal mines in Shanxi, Heilongjiang and other places stopped production and limited production, and Shandong's total coal consumption plan was reduced by 10%, pushing up market expectations. Shanxi Xiaoyi coke Enterprise Limited production, other areas supply stability, high operating rate, coke enterprise overall inventory was low, shipment was smooth. The blast furnace operation rate of the steel plant remained at a high level, the demand was strong, the port inventory was reduced, and the expectation of market price increase was raised.

Strategy analysis: COVID-19 is currently facing a dual economic growth and a strong economic support for the economy. Europe and the United States began to restart the economy to boost market demand expectations, and crude oil rebounded strongly. However, there are still worries about the expansion of the epidemic in Russia and South America. We should strengthen macro-control at home and adopt strong and loose policies to stabilize economic growth. In the near future, the blast furnace operating rate of the steel plant remains at a high level, the demand peak season and the loose policy push up the spot price expectation, and the futures follow the expected fluctuation trend of recovery to prevent the short-term callback pressure after rise.

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