SunSirs: Energy, Coke Market slightly Declined by 3.20% in April

In April 2020, the coke market fell slightly. The main market price in Shanxi Province was 1,563.33 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month and 1,513.33 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 3.20%.

On April 30, the coke commodity index was 79.44, unchanged from the previous day, down 41.17% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 129.26% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Trend Analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic coke market is stable this week. As of last Friday, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,680 RMB/ton and 1,740 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,650 RMB/ ton and 1,720 RMB/ ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,640 RMB/ ton and 1,700 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,540 RMB/ ton and 1,590 RMB/ ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,580 RMB/ ton and 1,640 RMB/ ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,610 RMB/ ton and 1,670 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,700 RMB/ ton and 1,800 RMB/ tonrespectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,630 RMB/ ton and 1,680 RMB/ ton; in Tianjin are 1,650 RMB/ ton and 1,750 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Erdos coke market are 1,780 RMB/ ton, 1,920 RMB/ ton and 1,300 RMB/tonrespectively. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1,900 RMB/ ton, of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is about 1,800 RMB/ ton, and of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1,700 RMB/ ton.

Product: the coke market has entered the consolidation period since the reduction of 50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of this month. As of April 31, the main transaction price of quasi first grade wet quenching coke in Shanxi was about 1,500-1,600 RMB/ ton, down 50 RMB/ ton compared with last month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the overseas situation, the steel plant operated in a weak position, the coke output was stable, the steel plant transferred to the pressure coke market went down slightly, and then the coke entered the consolidation channel, and remained stable until the end of the month. Up to now, the operation rate of the downstream steel plant has picked up, and the coke demand is acceptable. On April 29, the high-speed charging was informed to resume from May 6, which has a certain impact on the coke cost. In terms of inventory: at present, the inventory of coking enterprises is relatively low, the environmental protection pressure is relatively small in the near future, the operating rate is slightly higher than that in the early stage, the coke output is stable, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and most of them are purchased on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were four kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in April 2020, among which the top three commodities were LPG (4.99%), MTBE (4.92%) and methanol (3.59%). There were 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (-25.05%), asphalt (-23.39%) and naphtha (-18.96%). This month's average price was -6.46%.

Market Forecast

The recovery of Expressway charging will support the cost of coke market to some extent, but the whole industrial chain is in a relatively balanced state at present, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the stock situation of steel mills in the future.

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