SunSirs: Chemical, Domestic PX Market Trend was Stable Last Week (April 20-24)

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene (PX) ex-factory price was temporarily stable last week. The average price at the weekend was 4,300 RMB/ ton, which was the same compared with the price at the beginning of the week, down 48.81% year on year.

Market Analysis

Product: last week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the domestic PX operating rate remained more than 70%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal. Due to the decline of crude oil price, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene remained low. Last week, the operating rate of PX units in Asia was more than 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia was normal. Last week, the external price of PX fluctuated. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was $449-451/ ton FOB South Korea and $469-471/ ton CFR China. Affected by the drop of international crude oil price, the external price of PX fell slightly last week, and more than 40% of domestic products needed to be imported, the decline of closing price of PX external market had a certain negative impact on the domestic market, and the domestic PX market price remained low.

Industrial chain: last week, the closing price of international crude oil dropped. As of April 23, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures market price contract was $16.50/ barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures market main contract was quoted at $24.79/ barrel. Last week, the price of international oil prices went down. The price trend of PTA Market in the downstream of last week declined. As of the end of last week, the PTA Market in East China was negotiated to be around 3,200-3,300 RMB/ ton,. In the near future, the starting load of PTA industry is 89%, which is far higher than the actual demand load of PTA corresponding to the current polyester operating rate. It is expected that the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will continue to increase in the later period, and the industry inventory will also rise again. From January to March 2020, the cumulative export of China's textiles and clothing decreased by 17.70% year on year. The terminal weaving enterprises without orders have to stop production. Previously, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving enterprises have been operating at a low level around 55%, 14% lower than the peak after the year, and nearly 30% lower than last year. The downstream market is weak, and the market price of p-xylene has remained at a low level.

Industry: last week, the textile industry was in a poor situation, and the export market was greatly hit. However, affected by the lower crude oil price, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

Market Forecast

The PX analyst of SunSirs believes that the crude oil price will remain low in the near future, but the inventory of downstream textile enterprises is high, the operating rate of downstream textile industry is average, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will keep a small decline this week. PX market trend is stable this week

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