SunSirs: The inventory rate and operating rate both rose, the seamless tube weakened mainly (4.6-4.10)

1. Price Trend
According to SunSirs data statistics, the seamless pipe market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of 20 # and 108 * 4.5 seamless pipes was reported at 4366 yuan / ton, and at the weekend it was reported at 4325 yuan / ton.

2. Factor 

Raw material tube billet, tube factory price reduction

The tube billet fell slightly this week. As of the weekend, Jiangxin tube billet was shipped from the factory: hot rolled 3530 yuan (ton price, the same below), continuous casting 3430 yuan; 45 # 3580 yuan, Tiangang 20 # tube billet ex-factory price: hot rolled 3570 Yuan, continuous casting 3500 Yuan. Weifang tube billet: Weigang 20 # hot rolled 3670, continuous casting 3570. Luli 20 # hot rolled 3520, continuous casting 3420.
The seamless tube has been continuously lowered this week. As of the weekend, Shandong Panjin 60 * 3.5-6mm shipped 4160 yuan, 73-95 * 4mm shipped 4110 yuan, 102-159 * 4.5mm shipped 4080 yuan, and 168-180 * 6-12mm shipped 4020 yuan, 219-245 * 7-16mm factory 4040 yuan, 273 * 8mm factory 4020 yuan, 325 * 9-10mm factory 4070 yuan.

Increased inventory
According to statistics, the national total inventory was 908,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons from the same period last week, and a weekly increase of 6.69%, ending the four-week consecutive downward trend. Among them, the total inventory of Linyi area was 134,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the same period last week, and a weekly increase of 8.94%.

Increased operating rate
The operating rate of 195 production lines nationwide (including 40 long-process steel pipe plants) was 71.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the same period last week. Among them, the operating rate of 125 (including 8 continuous rolling units) in Shandong area was 70.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last week; the operating rate of 65 production lines (including 1 continuous rolling unit) in Linyi area was 70.3%, an increase of 0.9 from last week Percentage points.

Poor demand
The current downstream terminal demand is not performing well. Despite low-cost shipments, there is still no improvement in transactions. The downstream project volume has contracted, the terminal demand volume is still low, and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood

3. Forecast

 The current inventory has increased, the operating rate is higher, the terminal demand is not good, and the short-term seamless tube prices are mainly weak and stable. 

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