SunSirs: Demand Weakens, Chinese Rare Earth Prices Decline

The rare earth index on March 31 was 337 points, which was the same as March 30. It was 66.30% lower than 1,000, the highest point of the cycle (2011-12-06), which was 24.35% higher than the lowest point of September 13, 2015, which was 271 points. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to present).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium decreased by 5,000 yuan / ton to 367,500 yuan / ton, 2,325,000 yuan / ton and 640,000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 2,000 yuan / ton to 267,000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 25,000 yuan / ton to 1,795,000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 310,000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 2,000 yuan / ton to 287,500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 2,000 yuan / ton to 337,000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy decreased by 10,000 yuan / ton to 1,795,000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the trend of rare earth prices has dropped, domestic heavy rare earth market supply has increased, heavy rare earth imports are tight, and Myanmar has unilaterally closed customs ports, but domestic manufacturers have continued to resume work, domestic supplies have increased, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend has continued to fall. Recently, the demand for permanent magnets has declined, and the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has been mainly lower. The supply in the market is normal. The recent demand for light rare earth has weakened, and some market prices have continued to decline. The price fluctuations of the rare earth market are related to environmental protection inspections across the country. The production of rare earths is special, especially the radiation hazards of some products make strict environmental protection supervision. Under strict environmental protection investigations, manufacturers reasonably controlled sales, but downstream demand has declined recently, and some rare earth prices have fallen.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document saying that by 2025, new energy vehicles and new car sales will account for about 25%. Global electrification is entering the acceleration period of high-end models on the supply side. China's double-point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China's domestic demand has improved, and the price of heavy rare earths in the domestic rare earth market has remained high. Recently, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the Issuance of the Rare Earth Ore Tungsten Mining Total Control Indicators (First Batch) in 2020", which clarified the first batch of rare earth ores (REO) mining nationwide. The volume control index is 66,000 tons, and the total control index of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%) is 52500 tons. National policies are conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of heavy rare earth markets has increased, and market prices have fallen slightly.

SunSirs rare earth analysts expect the domestic heavy rare earth market to be normal in the near future, and downstream demand has weakened, but recently the world ’s largest rare earth producer outside of China, Australian rare earth miner Lynas Corp said on March 31 that it will comply with Malaysia The government's order extended the closure of the Malaysian factory for two weeks to April 14. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will stop falling and rebound in the later period.

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