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SunSirs: Gas Limitation Storm Triggered a "Ten-day Change", with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Prices Falling by more than 4% (9.10-9.19)

September 20 2019 14:57:55     SunSirs (Selena)
  1. Price Trend

In September, the China domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) market improved due to the northwest gas limit, and with the end of the 10-day gas limit, the price of LNG resumed its decline. The average price of domestic LNG market on the 10th day was 3,030 RMB/ton, and the average price on September 19th was 2,900 RMB/ton. Within ten days, the price fell 4.29%, 35.56% compared with the same period last year.

  1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: According to the data of SunSirs, as of September 19th, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2,950 RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2,850 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3,000 RMB/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is 2,300 RMB/ton, that of Qinshui XinAo LNG is 3,150 RMB/ton, that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan LNG Co., Ltd. is 2,900 RMB/ton, and that of Qinghua Energy Group of Xinjiang is 2900 RMB/ton. Local LNG prices have fallen to low levels.

Market analysis: In recent ten days, the domestic LNG market has continuously lowered prices. The northwest gas limit ended on September 10, and the market has resumed normal supply. Major manufacturers are preparing for the pre-festival warehouse and lowering the liquid price one after another. Under the guidance of downstream demand, in order to alleviate the pressure of shipment, liquid factories have sought a favorable price reduction. Individual factories have made great efforts to reduce the price, with partial inverted shipment phenomenon. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, transportation was blocked, and shipments from liquid factories in some areas were not smooth and prices were continuously lowered. After the holidays, the restrictions on high-speed and dangerous chemicals transportation were lifted, the demand situation was still unclear, the terminal demand was not improved, the upstream bid was difficult, and the liquid factory continued to reduce the price in order to maintain normal shipment. At present, the downstream demand is flat, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply exceeds demand situation is still strong, and with the rising import LNG prices, it will bring certain benefits to domestic LNG. In addition, the upstream factories are forced to reduce production costs, and the wait-and-see mentality is growing. LNG stops falling and returns to stability, and the trend is still weak.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on September 19, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, the first two of which were dimethyl ether (0.49%) and methanol (0.37%). There were seven kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products were WTI crude oil (-2.07%), Brent crude oil (-1.47%) and diesel oil (-0.90%). The average daily rise and fall was - 0.35%.

  1. Market Forecast

LNG analysts of SunSirs believe that the current market demand is inadequate. With the end of the Northwest Gas Limitation, the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the LNG market returns to normal. In addition, near the National Day, demand in some areas is more reduced, or it may affect liquid prices. LNG prices are expected to remain dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

 

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