SunSirs: Energy, When can DME Usher in the Dawn?

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, from February 2020, the market of DME has shown a downward trend. In March, the decline of DME increased, especially in the last half of the month. On March 8, the average ex-factory price of DME was 2,930 RMB/ ton, and on March 23, the average price was 2,583.33 RMB/ ton. During this period, the price of DME fell by 11.83%, 21.95% lower than that of the same period last year. At present, the price of DME has reached a new low in nearly a decade, and the decline has not stopped.

In March, the trend of DME declined as a whole, with only a small rebound during the period. At the beginning of the month, with the support of crude oil, the civil market of LPG continued to rise, and the downstream market entered the market for staged replenishment. The trading atmosphere in the DME market improved, and a slight rebound occurred on March 5, but then it returned to the decline under the influence of the international crude oil slump. From this week, the transaction atmosphere of DME market continued to be light and did not improve. This week, the decline of LPG is obvious, more than 3,000 RMB/ ton, which has a great impact on DME. The price difference between gas and ether is gradually reduced, and the pressure of DME is downward. At the weekend, Henan Xinlianxin once again carried out the policy of bottom protection, and the settlement price was lowered by 20 RMB/ ton after the announcement, and the downward trend of the DME Market is still continuing.

Industry chain: on March 15, the average price of domestic LPG market was 3,466.67 RMB/ ton, and on March 19, the average price was 2,750 RMB/ ton. On March 19, the daily decline was as high as 10.33%, the weekly price drop was 20.67%, and the price fell 29.97% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the decline of international crude oil, the civil market of LPG follows the trend. Most of the civil gas in Shandong market has fallen below the mark of 3,000 RMB/ ton, and the civil gas market in other parts of the country is also on the edge of 3000 RMB/ ton. At present, the market supply has increased compared with the previous stage, but the load reduction production is more, the terminal market is not fully opened, and the demand is limited, and the market is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downstream market sentiment is not high. The manufacturer's shipment is not smooth, the inventory pressure is large, and the price drops broadly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 0 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20). There were 16 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (-18.34%), LPG (-18.23%) and Brent crude oil (-14.50%). Last week's average was -6.6%.

Market Forecast

On March 19, the crude oil market rebounded, especially the WTI settlement price rose by 27% in a single day, the largest one-day increase in recent years, which was good for the market mentality. On March 23, the LPG market recovered and some rebounded. However, the crude oil fell in the morning, and the demand for DME was still general, the terminal digestion capacity was limited, and the overall market was still weak. It is expected that in the short term, the weak adjustment will be dominant, and the long-term trend of crude oil still needs attention.

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