SunSirs: Energy, the US Wants to Intervene in the Price Dispute in the Oil Market of Russia and Saudi Arabia; Retaliatory Rebound of Crude Oil

On March 19, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rebounded sharply, with main contracts up $5.54, to $25.91/ barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rebounded sharply, the main contract was at $30.30/ barrel, up $3.61. In particular, WTI's settlement price rose by 27% in a single day, the largest one-day increase in recent years. The main reason was Trump's public statement that he was timely involved in the oil market dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia, but the market generally remained worried about the future.

U.S. President Trump said on March 19 that he will intervene in the oil price dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia at an appropriate time, and said that although the current collapse of oil prices has damaged the oil industry, low gasoline prices are good for American consumers. He added that the United States is trying to find some kind of middle ground and has talked with several relevant people about the dispute.

As can be seen from the comments, the US has indicated that it will fight the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Market news indicates that the US may seek sanctions against Russia to stabilize the market, while the US also wants to urge Saudi Arabia to reduce production. Because the low price has seriously impacted the shale oil market in the United States, a large number of shale oil enterprises in the United States have been in a dangerous situation, facing the rupture of the capital chain at any time, bankruptcy is imminent. The apparent shift in the US government's attitude in recent days is also reasonable. Although the tone is still tough, in fact, it has begun to retreat.

In addition, the United States also timely released favorable information on commercial crude oil inventory data, aiming to reverse the decline of oil prices. On Tuesday, March 17, the United States announced that API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 13 was – 421,000 barrels, expected to be 2.933 million barrels, with a previous value of 6.4 million barrels. Although the United States wants to support the international oil price by using the good crude oil inventory data, it has not received the actual positive effect.

In the future, it seems to the business community that although crude oil rebounds sharply, it is difficult to reverse the long-term downturn in oil prices. At present, the global epidemic is still relatively serious, which leads to the closure of schools, enterprises and public places, and inhibits global economic activities. The global demand for crude oil continues to shrink. Moreover, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia shows no signs of turning around, Saudi Arabia's substantial increase in production has exposed the risk of obvious excess supply in the market, which, combined with the negative macro level, makes the global stock market sad. The decline of risk assets is hard to change. It is expected that the crude oil will still fluctuate at a low level in the near future, so it is not ruled out that it is possible to continue to explore the low level.

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