SunSirs: PET Rose More Than 4% in a Single Day, Boosted by Soaring Crude Oil

1.Price Trend

According to the data monitored by SunSirs, on September 17, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7487.5 yuan/ton, which was 4.17% higher than the 16-day price of RMB 7187.5/ton, and 33.85% lower than the same period last year.

On September 17, the PET commodity index was 56.30, up 2.26 points from yesterday, down 45.74% from the peak of 103.76 points in the cycle (2011-09-22), and up 17.93% from the low of 47.74 points on January 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

2.Cause analysis

Products: On September 14, two refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United States were attacked by drones, which affected Saudi oil production of 5.7 million barrels per day, and the disruption of Saudi supply caused oil prices to soar. Upstream products PTA and ethylene glycol market boosted, PET market prices have risen. At present, the polyester plant starts to maintain a high level, but the current market demand is limited, supply exceeds demand, driven by strong raw material end, the downstream follow-up is general, market turnover is flat, mostly wait-and-see, just need to purchase. As of September 17, the main quotation range of PET water bottle manufacturers is RMB 7350-7550/ton, which is generally increased by RMB 250/ton-300/ton.

Material aspect: PTA supply is sufficient at present, and there are plans to add new units, the overall start-up is high, inventory is still under pressure. Ethylene glycol plant start-up rate declined, port inventory declined, coupled with the Saudi attack led to the reduction of ethylene glycol production, downstream polyester demand increased steadily, the overall supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol improved, and domestic ethylene glycol enterprises increased.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 17, 2019. The top three commodities are PET (4.17%), PC (1.93%) and LLDPE (1.79%). There are two kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio, PS (-0.84%) and PA66 (-0.42%) respectively. The average daily rise and fall was 0.69%.

3.Future Market Forecast

PET analysts believe that, boosted by crude oil, cost-side support is good, the market of PET is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but cautious terminal demand, a strong downstream wait-and-see atmosphere, and the dynamics of crude oil market and other factors, the rise is not sustainable.

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