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SunSirs: The Domestic Aggregate MDI Market Fluctuated within a Narrow Range in February

March 06 2020 11:03:28     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated within a narrow range. According to sample data monitored by SunSirs, the average domestic aggregate MDI market price was 13,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the aggregate MDI price was 12,875 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.96% during the month. The prices were down 13.74% from the same period last year.

 

Analysis review   

Product: In February, the domestic aggregate MDI market was generally “miserable”. In the early stage, it was difficult to resume work of downstream, traffic was not smooth, and the market only offered quotations without transactions. In the later period, the market resumed slowly, with less demand, and the market price fell indefinitely. Supply side: The manufacturers are currently operating at low load, and Dongcao Ruian Plant is still shutting down. The downstream resumption of work is slow, there is no support for the demand side, it is difficult to close the trade link, manufacturers' inventory pressure doubles, and companies can only reduce their burdens and reduce production. Trade side: In line with the current market situation, quotations keep falling, factories are putting pressure on them, settlement is on the high side, and inventory pressure is also high. Although work resumed early, there were too few customers for inquiries, and even for small orders, logistics and transportation were not very convenient.

Industrial chain: In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: pure benzene fluctuated and weakened this month. During the month, pure benzene and downstream industries all have varying degrees of load reduction. Among them, the pure benzene industry's estimated operating rate in February was around 65%, a decrease of 10% from January. The main downstream styrene, phenol ketone, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid fall in the range of 18% -25%. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak, and prices fall weakly.

As for aniline, during the month, the domestic aniline market showed an upward trend. In the early part of the month, the holidays were extended, transportation was restricted, and aniline inventory accumulated, which forced the plant to stop or reduce its load. Although the new supply of aniline decreased, downstream resumption of work was delayed, demand also weakened, and the market was light and stable. In the middle of the month, Jinmao, Huatai and Jinling all stopped for maintenance, and the new supply in the market decreased. The Shandong factory only sells inventory and has limited shipments to the market. Prices have risen. However, some customers searched for goods in Shanxi and East China. One set of 100,000 tons of aniline was stopped for maintenance in East China. After the inventory of the factory was released slowly, the price went up in Shandong. Late in the month, Huatai restarted and market supply increased. The downstream resumption of work is slow and demand is weak. The Shandong and East China factories have poor shipments and high inventory. Although the offer was stable, in order to promote shipments, the East China market actually fell.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in February 2020, there were 28 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector that rose in the commodity price rise and fall list, of which 5 kinds of goods increased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of goods monitored in this sector ; The top three commodities were sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluoric acid (8.40%), and fluorite (8.05%). There were a total of 48 commodities with a decrease from the previous month, and a total of 27 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector. The top three products were butadiene (-22.76%) and propane (-21.45). %), Hydrogen peroxide (-18.21%). The average monthly increase or decrease was -2.53%.

 

Market outlook

Huntsman announced its listing price in March earlier than Wanhua, up 500 RMB/ton from February. The industry was at a loss for a while, but because of the Wuhan incident, the current status of overall downstream demand was slightly pessimistic. SunSirs aggregate MDI analysts predict that next month the domestic aggregate MDI market may stop falling and wait and see. As for whether there is any upward trend and the range of price increases, it is difficult to predict in the short term. There is another possibility that prices continue to fall, manufacturers' stocks shift, and prices bottom out.

 

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.

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