SunSirs: Energy, Supply Exceeds Demand; DME Market Soared in February

Price Trend

In February, the domestic DME Market showed a continuous downward trend. The average price of the domestic DME Market at the beginning of the month was 3,340 RMB/ ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 3,003.33 RMB/ ton, with a drop of 10.08% in the month, and the price was 4.76% lower than the same period last year.

Market Analysis

Product: the market of DME fell in February, and the atmosphere of market transaction was light. As of February 28, no quotation has been made for the parking of DME devices in Hebei Yutai, Henan Lankao Huitong Chemical Co., Ltd., Shanxi Lanhua Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan Co., Ltd.; no quotation has been made for the failure of new DME devices in Henan Yima. The ex-factory price of DME of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. was 2,900 RMB / ton, that of Henan Shengxin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was 2,970 RMB / ton, and that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. was 3,150 RMB / ton.

In February, the overall operating rate of DME market was about 12%. Although the operating rate was relatively low, the market was still in a situation of oversupply. This month, the trend of DME continued to be weak, mainly falling. At the beginning of the month, affected by COVID-19, the Spring Festival holiday was extended, the transportation in all cities was closed, the downstream was shut down, the terminal demand was greatly reduced, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. At this time, the civil gas market is falling, which affects the market mentality. The operators are mainly short of the future market and wait and see. In June, the civil gas market rebounded under the boost of crude oil, which helped dimethyl ether to stop falling and stabilize. However, due to the large inventory pressure of most enterprises, it did not drive the market up. At the end of the month, with the sharp diving of international crude oil, the civil gas market once again fell into a deadlock, mainly downward. The price difference between gas and ether gradually decreased, and the market of DME was under pressure again, and the factory price fell below 3,000 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 3 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in February 2020, among which one is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top 3 commodities weree petroleum coke (26.38%), thermal coal (2.09%) and coking coal (0.79%). There were 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were LPG (-15.59%), MTBE (-15.56%), DME (-10.08%). This month's average rise and fall was -3.68%.

Market Forecast

In February, under the influence of public events, there were many negative factors in the market of DME, and the price kept falling, reaching the bottom continuously. At present, the decline of civil gas is dominant, the trend of cost methanol is weak, and the market of DME is still in a relatively weak position. At the end of the month, Henan Xinlianxin and other manufacturers implemented the minimum guarantee policy to protect the market price. In a word, the market of DME is easy to fall and hard to rise in the short term. In March, the downstream construction resumed slowly, the domestic demand was expected to increase, the DME inventory was released, or the weak situation could be changed.

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