SunSirs: Improvement of Demand, PTA Stop Decline but Rebound

According to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, the PTA spot market rebounded slightly on March 4, with an average price of 4,268 RMB/ton, up 0.42% compared with the previous trading day, down 35.5% year on year. Main futures were adjusted to close at 4,368, up 10% or 0.23% from the previous trading day.

In terms of supply, PTA plant restart and load reduction coexist. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. normally discharges the 1 million ton/year PTA plant after restart on March 3. It is necessary to pay attention to whether Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million ton/year PTA plant is maintained as planned. At present, the domestic operating rate is around 81%, and the overall operating rate is still high. Since February, the accumulated storage pressure has continued. Up to now, PTA social circulation inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, which is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand.

However, in the near future, the price of crude oil has been rising, and the cost side has been boosted to a certain extent. At the same time, the comprehensive load of downstream polyester plant is around 66%. With the introduction of resumption policies and government support policies, the start-up has shown a slow upward trend, and the demand side has seen a positive trend. On March 4, the price of polyester filament mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was temporarily stable, with individual increase of 50 RMB/ton, of which the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was 6,600-6,750 RMB/ton.

Analysts of SunSirs believe that with the gradual recovery of market demand, supply and demand will improve in the later period, and PTA will continue to rebound due to the improvement of cost and demand in the short term. However, this year is the big year for PTA production capacity. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be as high as 30%. In the context of production capacity delivery cycle, PTA is highly limited, and the trend will still be weak in the future.

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