SunSirs: Energy, LNG Market Continued to Decline (February 24-28)

Price Trend

According to data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on February 28 was 3,053.33 RMB/ ton, down 4.28% from February 24, and 30.71% from the same period last year. On February 28, the LNG commodity index was 75.26, down 2.87 points from the previous day, 63.98% from 208.96 (December 25, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and 9.31% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Iinfluencing Factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of February 28, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia ErdosXingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,020RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok QianqiShitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2,930RMB/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,200 RMB/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2,320 RMB/ton, that of Shanxi QinshuiXinao was 3,400 RMB/ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuanlvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,210 RMB/ton.

Market analysis: last week, the number of LNG domestic enterprises returned to work increased, the logistics was generally smooth, the demand increased, the LNG manufacturer's shipment situation improved, the LNG market recovered, the overall market delivery and investment direction was good, and the price was significantly higher than last week. But near the weekend, due to the sharp decline of crude oil and liquefied gas market, LNG had a certain impact, in addition, with the increase of manufacturers' startup With the increase of production and sufficient supply of goods, and the increase of prices in the early stage, the volume of transactions was less than expected, the inventory increased, and LNG plants went to the market with the trend, and the quotation was successively lowered. At the same time, the off-season natural gas price will be implemented in advance on February 22, and the cost of a large number of pipeline natural gas enterprises will be reduced, or the LNG price will be restrained. The trend of LNG is restricted by many factors.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top 2 were methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There were thirteen kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-11.78%), Brent crude oil (-11.57%), and LPG (-8.64%). This week's average was -3.14%.

Market Forecast

According to the LNG analyst of SunSirs, at present, the LNG manufacturers have increased their start-up capacity and output, market supply is sufficient and sales pressure of LNG plants is increased. It is expected that the market will be weak in the short term.

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