SunSirs: Energy, Price of Refined Naphtha was Slightly Reduced Last Week (February24-28)

Price Data

As of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 6,276.67 RMB/ ton, down 0.26% from 6,293.33 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 6,250 RMB/ ton.

The naphtha commodity index on February 28 was 77.47, unchanged from the previous day, down 24.51% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 83.40% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: last week, the price of naphtha in the refinery fell slightly. Most refineries shut down for maintenance, and the supply fell. There is no pressure on the inventory of refineries, and some refineries mainly use their own inventory.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States is $53.38/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $47.09/ barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.78%; Brent crude oil is $58.50/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $51.73/ barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.57%. The global COVID-19 has a trend of spreading. The spread of globalization worries the market about future economic development, and the price of international crude oil market keeps falling. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market fell slightly last week, down about 0.60% as of Friday, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 4,950 RMB/ ton. Last week, the domestic isomeric xylene remained stable, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 5,000 RMB/ ton. In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined. The domestic PX operating rate is about 70%, and the market price is about 6,300 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top 2 were methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There were thirteen kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-11.78%), Brent crude oil (-11.57%), and LPG (-8.64%). This week's average was -3.14%.

Market Forecast

According to energy analysts of SunSirs, naphtha prices last week fell slightly, international crude oil prices continued to fall last week, Asian naphtha prices continued to fall along with the trend of crude oil, most refineries shut down for maintenance, supply decreased, inventory was not under pressure, the current market just needs to be strong, and it is expected that the price of naphtha in the near future will be stable, some refineries fluctuated slightly, and the average price range is 6,100-6,300 RMB/ ton.

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