Ruida Futures: The Attack of Saudi Oil Boosts Gold Prices, but Upward Resistance Remains

SunSirs: Sep 16

Ruida Futures: The attack of Saudi oil boosts gold prices, but the upward resistance remains

Quotations tendency: The opening price of AU 1912 today is higher than the previous closing price. And then the prices swing between 347.65RMB/g and 345.4RMB/g. The closing price is 346.25RMB/g, 0.03% higher than that of the last trading day. The volume is 226,000 lots, it decreases 246,000 lots daily. The open interest is 502,000 lots, increasing 2,706 lots. The opening price of AG 1912 is lower than the previous closing price, and then the prices go higher. The closing price is 4,401RMB/g, decreasing 1.32% than the previous closing price.

Market Focus: (1) The Dollar Index in Asian market dips and turns up, now it is 98.147, decreasing 0.05%. (2) In China, the growth of value-added of large industrial enterprises is 4.4% higher year on year in August (the expected one is 5.2%). From Jan to Aug, the national investment in real estate development is 10.5%, the former one is 10.6%. (3) In August, the total retail sales consumer goods is 3389.6 billion yuan, 7.5% higher year on year, and the growth rate falls 0.1% compared with last month.

Sell position: AU1912’s long position of the top 20 is 87,830 lots, the short position is 43,223 lots, the net long position is 44,607 lots. The increased long position is more than that of the short one. AG1912’s long position of the top 20 is 255,524 lots, the short position is 136,536 lots, the net long position is 118,988 lots, increasing 3,019 lots. The increased long position is less than that of the short one.

Buy position: On Sep 13, the open interest of SPDR Gold Trust gold ETF was 874.51 tons, decreasing 15.24 tons weekly. It was the end of the six-week increase, the bullish atmosphere weakened. Meanwhile, the open interest of Shares Silver Trust silver ETF was 11800.71 tons, decreasing 224.04 tons weekly. The decline of the two consecutive weeks also showed that the bullish atmosphere continued to decline.

Market study and determine: On Sep 16, the trends of precious metals in Shanghai market on September 16 are differentiated. The opening prices of gold are higher than the previous closing prices, and then the prices swing, which showing a relatively strong performance. While both the opening and closing prices of silver are lower than the previous closing ones, arriving at a new low level since August 26. During the weekend, Saudi Arabia's oil core was attacked, crude oil soars and gold prices rise as well. However, under the pressure of a better macro-environment in the Sino-US trade war, the rise of gold prices will be limited. The market generally expects the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this week, putting pressure on the dollar index, which supporting the gold prices. Technically, AU has multiple resistance above, the green column of MACD is flattening. It is expected that the consolidation trend will continue in the short term. AGM breaks the middle line of Boll and attention should be paid to the 30-day Moving Average. Operationally, it is suggested that AU1912 could do high throwing and bargain hunting between 343-349RMB/g, and a stop is 3RMB/g. AG1912 could do high throwing and bargain hunting between 4,450-4,350RMB/g, and a stop is 50RMB/g.

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