SunSirs: Downstream demand downturn PVC market prices under pressure

1. Price Trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs (average ex-factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on February 17, the average domestic mainstream PVC price was 6,675 yuan / ton, down 0.93% from the previous day's 6737.5 yuan / ton, and up 5.12% compared with the same period last year. The PVC commodity index on February 17 was 84.58, a decrease of 0.79 points from yesterday, a 15.42% decrease from the highest point of the cycle at 100.00 points (2011-09-05), and a 45.15 increase from the lowest point of 58.27 points on December 20, 2015. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

2. Market Analysis

In terms of products: At present, downstream companies are slow to resume work, and demand is sluggish. The inventory pressure of PVC manufacturers has increased, the operating rate has fallen, and transportation is limited. Therefore, the spot market of PVC has been stagnant, and transactions have been limited, and some manufacturers have closed. Do not report, the market is long and short, and PVC prices are under pressure. According to the monitoring of the business agency data, as of February 17, the domestic mainstream PVC quotation range was 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of PVC5 type calcium carbide in Changzhou area is near 6320-6450 yuan / ton, and the range of PVC5 type calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 6300-6450 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou area is around 6300-6350 yuan / ton. Deals are negotiable.

In terms of futures: the main PVC contract of V2005 was narrowly arranged, closing at 6,300 yuan / ton, which was -20 yuan over the previous trading day; the volume was 81,044 hands, -1,901 hands; the position was 193,366 hands, -730 hands, and the basis difference was 50 yuan, -30 Yuan; 5-9 spreads-100 yuan, -15 yuan.

Industrial chain: Recently, the European and American ethylene markets are generally in a downward trend. The overall ethylene market demand is not good, and the market continues to decline. Industry players are more concerned about the supply and demand situation after the holiday. In terms of calcium carbide, the capital flow of each plant is in good condition, the equipment is overhauled, the production capacity is increased, and the calcium carbide market as a whole runs smoothly.

In terms of industry: According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 06th week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), the price of commodities in the rubber and plastics sector increased by 1 category, and the increase was natural rubber (0.08%). There were a total of 10 kinds of goods that fell month-on-month, and a total of 2 kinds of goods that fell by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the number of monitored goods in this sector; the top 3 products were PET (-8.82%) and LLDPE (-5.52%). , PP (-4.81%). This week the average rise or fall was -2.2%.

3. Future Forecast

SunSirs' PVC analysts believe that downstream companies are slowly returning to work, and the operating rate of PVC manufacturers has declined, coupled with transportation restrictions. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.