SunSirs: Energy, Logistics Gradually Recover, LNG market Prices Rise

Price Trned

LNG market was weak in the near future, the price was low, but rebounded on February 18. According to data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on February 18 was 3,060 RMB/ ton, 2% higher than the previous day and 21.54% lower than the same period last year. On February 18, the LNG commodity index was 75.42, up 1.48 points from yesterday, down 63.91% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 9.54% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of February 18, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,080 RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,000 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,300 RMB/ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,100 RMB/ton. The price of LNG in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia increased.

Market analysis: since the Spring Festival, transportation is limited, most of the logistics stops, and there are many downstream stops. In addition, the market demand is low, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. LNG plants are affected by poor shipment, the liquid level is rising, LNG plants are actively discharging, the market breadth is falling, and the low level is stuck. According to the Ministry of transport, from 0:00 on February 17 to the end of the prevention and control work, toll roads across the country are free of vehicle tolls, LNG transportation conditions have been improved, shipments of liquid plants have improved, and prices in some regions have been raised. However, at present, most LNG manufacturers are still delayed to return to work, and the logistics and transportation have not been fully recovered. In some regions, the price has been lowered due to the impact of imported liquefied gas, and the terminal price has been reduced and promoted, with a poor trend. With the downstream enterprises returning to work and increasing demand, there may be a tight supply situation in some areas. In addition, due to the low LNG price in the early stage, the downstream market is active, the overall market atmosphere is good, the liquid plant shipment is improved, the liquid level is gradually reduced, and the LNG price stops falling and rebounds, rising steadily.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were four kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on February 18, 2020, among which the top 3 were LNG (2.00%), LPG (0.89%) and Brent crude oil (0.61%). There were four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were MTBE (-4.30%), fuel oil (-0.89%) and gasoline (-0.14%). The average price of this day was -0.12%.

Market Forecast

According to the LNG analyst of SunSirs, at present, the LNG transportation conditions have been improved, the delivery of LNG plants has been improved, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is good. With the downstream enterprises returning to work in succession, the demand has increased, and it is expected that the LNG market will improve in the short term and rise steadily.

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