SunSirs: Downstream Resumption Delayed and Ethylene Glycol Prices Fell Down (February 3-7)

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the ex-factory price of ethylene glycol fell this week. On February 7, the average ex-factory price of oil-to-ethylene glycol in North China was 4,816 RMB/ton, down 6.47% from the pre-holiday period. 

Before the festival, the price of large single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 5,110 RMB/ton, and this Friday's price was 4,385 RMB/ton, down 725 RMB/ton, down 14.19%.

Analysis review   

As of February 7, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 70.38%, down 0.77% compared with that before the festival.

In terms of equipment, the ethylene glycol unit in Luoyang of Yongjin has been restarted and the load has been increased to 70-80%; the restart time of the unit in Xinxiang of Yongjin has been postponed; the ethylene glycol production enterprises under Yangmei group have reduced the load to varying degrees. In addition, the ethylene glycol units of Hengli petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical are in operation and will produce ethylene glycol in volume in the near future.

As of February 6, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 598,000 tons, an increase of 26,500 tons or 4.61% compared with Monday.

In the downstream, the polyester operation rate was 61.10%, 10.14% lower than that before the festival. 

Market outlook

During the Spring Festival, the arrival of glycol at the port was less than expected, but the inventory increased due to the poor downstream digestion. In addition, due to the decline in crude oil prices, polyester and loom start-up delay, glycol prices have declined significantly. In the later period, the crude oil price was increased, and the spot price of glycol recovered. In the short term, with the resumption of work further delaying the emergence of risk, glycol price is not optimistic.

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