SunSirs: Plastics, PVC Kept Stable With The Approach of Chinese New Year

The national average price of PVC (average ex-factory price of SG5 of carbide method) on January 21 was 6,825 RMB/ton. It is flat compared with last day. And the market was temporarily stable, with an increase at 7.48% compared with the same period last year.

On January 21, the PVC commodity index was 86.48, unchanged from yesterday. It is 13.52% lower than the highest point in the cycle at 100.00 (2011-Septmber-5). And it is 48.41% higher than the lowest point at 58.27 on December 20, 2015 (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-Septmber-1 to now).

Product aspect, near the Spring Festival, PVC market trend is stable. In recent days, the spot market was light in trading. downstream factories are going on holiday. Their intention to prepare goods before the festival is light as there are not many sporadic replenishments. The traders continue to withdraw from the market. And market transactions tend to stagnate.

At present, the social inventory of PVC continues to increase, and the operation rate of upstream PVC factories decreases. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival holiday may be lower than that of the same period last year. The enterprises are facing certain pressure.

In the demand side dominated situation, PVC spot price trend is weak. As of January 21, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6,600-6,950 RMB / ton. The mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou district is 6,850-6,950 RMB / ton. The interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou district is 6,750-6,950 RMB / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou district is 6,850-6,920 RMB / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

Future aspect, on Monday, PVC main v2005 contracts were narrowed, closing at 6,470 RMB / ton, compared with - 5 RMB on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,333 hands, + 10,569 hands. The positions were 197,607 hands, - 4,819 hands, basis difference was 280 RMB, + 5 RMB. The price difference was 40 yuan, + 20 yuan. Futures closed up 10, at 6,490. ndustry chain: disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. As for calcium carbide, the capital return of each factory is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, the production capacity is increased, and the price is slightly increased.

News aspect, on January 17, the National Bureau of statistics released data on investment and sales of real estate development nationwide from January to December 2019. Accordingly, in 2019, the national real estate development investment was 13219.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous year. Among them, residential investment reached 9707.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous year. The new construction area changed from negative to positive year on year, showing a positive trend.

Industry chain aspect, it was disturbed by various news. Although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists. And there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. As for calcium carbide, the capital return of each factory is in good condition. the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price is slightly increased.　

Industry aspect, on January 20, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, with PA66 (0.09%) rising. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are PP (- 1.53%) and natural rubber (- 0.24%). The average price of this day was - 0.11%.

Forecasting aspect, SunSirs analysts believe that near the Spring Festival, the factory's operating rate is at a low level. And it is difficult to make a big change in the downstream demand end, so it is expected that PVC will run smoothly before the festival.

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