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SunSirs: With Chinese New Year approaching, bearish news cover the soybean oil

January 19 2020 13:11:36     SunSirs (Molly)

The soybean oil commodity index on January 17 was 67.92, a decrease of 0.58 points from the 16th, a decrease of 32.42% from the highest point of the cycle at 100.51 (2011-09-12), and 35.79% increase from the lowest point of December 18, 2018, 50.02. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

According to the monitoring by SunSirs: starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, the price of soybean oil continued to soar, and hit new highs repeatedly, rising to January 13, the average price of soybean oil market was 7,226 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 22.07%. Starting on the 14th, soybean oil began a high-level diving, and the rally ended. The price fell for three consecutive days, falling to 6,943 yuan / ton, and the price fell 2.53%.

Market Analysis

Products: Soybean oil continued to soar in the fourth quarter of 2019 to early January 2020, mainly due to the sharp decline in Malaysia’s palm oil production, the palm oil market boosted, coupled with the peak season for the final value consumption of fats and oils in the fourth quarter, soybean oil stocks continued to be low . Prices have been rising all the way. As the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed, the role of palm oil substitution has decreased. The market predicts that soybean oil will replace the position of palm oil leader, which will play a role in supporting the soybean oil market. Beginning in mid-January, the end of the catering industry's stocking demand has ended. The external price of horse palm oil and US soybean oil futures prices have continued to fall. The soybean oil price has ended, and the price has continued to decline. Break the 7000 yuan mark.

Device dynamics: Some soybean oil plant shutdown plans: Tianjin Dafu plans to shut down on the 22nd; Tianjin Bangji plans to shut down on the 22nd; Beijing Huifu plans to shut down on the 20th; Tianjin 9th to 20th plans to shut down; Tangshan Central Grain Storage 24th to plan shutdown; Qinhuangdao Jinhai plans to shut down on the 20th; Boxing plans to shut down on the 20th; Jingliang plans to shut down on the 23rd.

Data: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) ’s soybean oil export sales report shows that as of the week of January 9, the United States’ net sales of soybean oil in 2019-20 were 36,200 tons, and its net sales of soybean oil in 2020-21 were 0 tons. That week, the United States exported 12,800 tons of soybean oil in 2019-20.

Future outlook

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at SunSirs, believes that during the Spring Festival, soybean oil plants will be shut down for maintenance, soy oil supply will decrease, and prices may be firm in the short term, with limited room for decline.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com

 

 

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