SunSirs: Building Material, Domestic Demand is limited; Glass Market is High Stable (December16-20)

1. Price Trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the glass market remained stable last week, with an average price of 20.72 RMB/ m2.

1. Market Analysis

Product: last week's glass quotation was generally stable. In terms of different regions, the production enterprises in Shahe area were in normal or abnormal conditions, which were more restricted by road transportation and environmental protection. The production enterprises in Central China were in good condition of warehouse out, the inventory was relatively normal and low, and the price was mainly stable. The performance of East China was relatively stable, and the outbound situation was normal. The market price in South China remained stable. The price in Southwest China was stable. The trend of northwest and Northeast China was weak. In January 2020, affected by the Spring Festival and New Year’s Day, the downstream will gradually stop production, and the market may stop after the demand turns weak.

Capacity: there was no change in capacity last week. According to the data of the industry association, the average price of the national construction white glass at the end of last week was 1,669 RMB, up -3 RMB from the previous week, up 72 RMB from last year. At the end of the week, the utilization rate of glass production capacity was 69.57%; it rose 0.00% on a month on month basis, up -0.47% on a year-on-year basis; after eliminating excess capacity, the utilization rate of glass production capacity was 82.67%, up 0.00% on a month on week basis, up -1.10% on a year-on-year basis. The production capacity of glass in process is 936.3 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0 million heavy boxes on a month on week basis, and an increase of 7.8 million heavy boxes on a year-on-year basis. Over the weekend, the industry's inventory was 38.32 million heavy boxes, an increase of –510,000 heavy boxes on a month on week basis, and an increase of 7.09 million heavy boxes on a year-on-year basis. Weekend inventory days were 14.94 days, up - 0.20 days on a month on week basis, up 2.66 days on a year-on-year basis.

Industrial chain: last week, the domestic soda price was weak and stable, the market continued to be weak, and the trading atmosphere was flat. It is understood that the selling price of soda ash was low last week, in which the combined soda enterprise mainly adopted flexible single price negotiation considering the cost impact, and the price reduction space was slightly small due to the cost; the ammonia soda enterprise took the initiative to flexibly reduce 30-50 RMB/ ton to meet the order at the beginning of the month. Due to the contradiction of oversupply in the industry and the influence of weak upstream and downstream demand, the market trading performance eased and the delivery volume was average. At present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light alkali WAS 1,530-1,600 RMB/ ton; the mainstream price of domestic heavy alkali was 1,690-1,700 RMB/ ton. Last week, the weak market of heavy alkali mainly operated.

1. Market Forecast

SunSirs expects that the glass market price will continue to be stable in the South and weak in the north in the short term. There is still a certain market demand in the south, and the price can be firm for some time. The continuous adjustment of the winter storage plan in northern China has a certain impact on the glass spot market. In the short term, the overall market demand can be maintained for a period of time. The price is mainly stable, supplemented by a small downward tilt.

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