SunSirs: Energy, the Price of Local Refined Petroleum Coke Rose slightly Last Week (December 9-13)

1. Price Trend

Last week (12.9-12.13), the price of refined petroleum coke rose slightly. According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,007.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 1,022.50 RMB/ton at the end of the week, up 15 RMB/ton and down 1.49% in the week.

On December 13, the petroleum coke commodity index was 79.53, unchanged from the previous day, 48.88% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.90% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: last week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was stable, and the price of some refineries increased slightly. Last week, affected by heavy fog weather, refinery shipments were hindered.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility. Downstream: the shipment of calcined coke is not good, the enterprises mainly clear inventory, the market performance of electrolytic aluminum is average, the price of graphite electrode is stable, and the policy of limiting production and production in heating season is implemented in November. According to the data of SunSirs, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingot as of December 13 was 14,023.33 RMB/ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there were four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top 3 commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and LPG (0.59%). There were ten kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). Last week's average up and down was - 0.52%.

1. Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predicted that the market price of ground refined petroleum coke rose slightly last week, mainly due to the increase of downstream inquiry, the reduction of refinery inventory pressure and the reduction of sulfur content in some refineries. It is expected that the price of ground refined petroleum coke will rise slightly in the near future, and the price range may be around 900-1,100 RMB/ton.

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