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SunSirs: Energy, Methanol Market Narrow Range Consolidation

December 16 2019 17:43:18     SunSirs (Selena)

  1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market was sorted out in a narrow range. As of December 13, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2,120 RMB/ton. The price is 1.92% higher than that of the same period last month and 14.31%, lower than that of the same period last year.

  1. Market Analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market continues to be weak, and the local price drops slightly. In terms of the mainland market, the overall change is not big, the demand side remains light, and some enterprises make a small profit when the shipment is weak. It is reported that under the warning in Henan and other places, some downstream enterprises stop production and vehicle transportation is also limited, which needs continuous attention. In the port market, inventory continued to decline and the market fluctuated in a narrow range, with little change as a whole. However, after the port price was raised, arbitrage with the mainland was closed, and shipment weakened.

Freight: domestic methanol freight has been sorting out recently, with partial increase. Reference 170-240 RMB/ton for part of Inner Mongolia North line to Lubei, including 200-240 RMB/ton for Daqi to Lubei, 170-200 RMB/ton for road to Lubei, 170-220 RMB/ton for South line to Lubei, 160 RMB/ton for South line to Hebei, 150-200 RMB/ton for Guanzhong to Lubei, 200 RMB/ton for part to Lunan, 130-160 RMB/ton for Shanxi to Lubei, and 210 RMB/ton for Shanxi to Lianyungang. The reference price from Xinjiang to North Shandong is 700 RMB/ton, and from Ningxia to North Shandong is 200-210 RMB/ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is in a weak position. Last week, affected by the heavy pollution weather, the board factory did not start high and the demand was limited. After the price was lowered at the beginning of the week, due to the cost problem, the profit space was not large and the price remained low within the week. At present, all cities in Shandong Province have successively lifted the early warning from the previous day. However, the cost of methanol is currently weak in some parts. In this case, it is expected that formaldehyde will be slightly sorted in the later stage. Linyi 1,050-1,100 RMB/ton, Heze part of the manufacturers shipped 1,000 RMB/ton, Zibo high-end fine chemicals 1,300 RMB/ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic market of glacial acetic acid is stable. Affected by the news of SOPP device, limited transportation of local weather in the north, and negative load reduction in Lunan, the supplier's offer was temporarily stable, and the persistent bearish mentality in the early stage improved. Due to the low sales pressure and the long-term delivery of documents by some enterprises, the prices are relatively firm. Individual spot sales enterprises have obvious selling pressure, but considering cost, the intention of price adjustment is not high. Downstream to maintain rigid procurement, acetate, PTA, vinyl acetate, etc. start-up are stable.

Dimethyl ether (DME): in the short term, the domestic market of DME is up and down, with general market performance. At present, there is no good guidance for the news, some regions restrict gas mix, and the upstream and downstream operations are cautious. It is expected that the domestic market of DME will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

  1. Market Forecast

From the perspective of the SunSirs: on the positive side, freight: in winter, when the haze and snowfall are concentrated, local freight rises, and the cost of arrival increases; Raw materia, in the heating season of autumn and winter, under the protection of natural gas for civil use, the supply and demand situation still supports the market to a certain extent. On the negative side, demand: in the near future, the trading atmosphere is not good, coupled with the decline of local downstream construction, the demand side is further weakened, and local prices continue to fall; supply: some early-stage parking devices have been recovered, and local supply has increased; Arbitrage: arbitrage between the port and the mainland is basically closed, and the delivery speed is slowed down. The methanol analysts of SunSirs expect that the short-term domestic methanol market is flat, and some of them are still expected to decline.

 

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