SunSirs: Spot Lead Bottomed out, up 0.94% this Week (December 9-13)

1. price trend

This week (December 9-13), the lead market rose slightly. The average price in the domestic market was 15,350RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 15,493.75RMB/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.94%.

On December 13, the lead commodity index was 94.29, down 0.04 points from yesterday, down 29.64% from 134.01 (November 29, 2016), and up 26.34% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

2. Market trend analysis

Domestic market

This week, the futures market rebounded at a low level. The spot market followed the trend of the futures market. The mainstream price of spot lead was 15,425-15,600RMB/ton. The price rebounded. The market atmosphere rebounded significantly. The trading situation was warmer than that of last week, with long orders as the main form, and less individual customers. Market brand lead is mainly concentrated in Jinsha, Nanhua, Yuguang, wanyang, Jinli, Nanhua and other brands. The downstream lead-acid battery has been in a relatively low state recently. Therefore, the purchase of primary lead and recycled lead has been tepid. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is also relatively sufficient, and the overall market is mainly weak consolidation.

Major domestic events

A large number of waste lead-acid batteries have entered the black market with huge environmental pollution problems: the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology released the guide for construction and operation of new energy vehicle power battery recycling service outlets (hereinafter referred to as the ‘guide’) on July 7. The guide clearly requires that new energy vehicle manufacturers should establish collection type recycling service outlets in the administrative areas (at least prefecture level) where new energy vehicles are sold.

Quanzhou will build a waste lead-acid battery collection and transfer project, which will recycle 50,000 tons of waste batteries every year. Recently, Quanzhou ecological environment bureau announced the EIA report form of the battery centralized collection and transfer technical transformation project of Quanzhou Kaiying power appliance Co., Ltd., which will be published until November 20, 2019. At the beginning of the plant's construction in September 2000, Kaiying company had a production scale of 4 million small plates. In 2005, it completed the technical transformation project of 4 million small plates to 4 million large plates. In June 2012, it completed the operation of the battery assembly line. In 2014, after the lead workshop was rebuilt and expanded in different places, the new and old plant areas of Kaiying company were managed independently, and the environmental protection facilities were operated independently.

Nonferrous Industry

Leading by the strong breakthrough of copper, the basic metals have stepped out of the low-lying area and kept rising. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the positive sentiment brought by the non-agricultural data on Friday. The announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting held confidence in the future economic development and long positions increased into the market. After the week, the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting stated that the loose policy is still the same, and the Conservative Party of the British general election is set. Next May, the brexit is expected to be completed, the pound soared, the US dollar fell below the 97 point mark, and the base metal soared again. The market expects that the US will postpone the imposition of trade tariffs on China's imported goods. The trade disputes between the two countries may be eased, and the US dollar continues to weaken, which has boosted the strength of the outer metal market, and the trend of low-level rebound of Lun lead.

3. Future prospects

PMI data of various countries will be released next week. The market is expected to recover. The U.S. stock market has set a record high continuously. The U.S. dollar's low is volatile, and the macro environment is still optimistic. All basic metals have got rid of the previous low range this week. Under the short market, there is still momentum to continue to rise. The spot is also the last time window for the end of the year's long-term single transaction It will maintain a strong price trend, so the two markets are more likely to show a strong trend in the basic metal period. The spot lead market is close to the end of the year when the downstream manufacturers stock up normally. It is expected that the lead market will maintain a volatile trend, and it is difficult to have a large fluctuation.

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