In 2022, the supply of raw materials imported soybeans will become tight, the soybean meal inventory will be low, the terminal demand will be weak, and there will be more than one empty market. The soybean meal market will usher in two waves of roller coaster market, dominated by Lido. The overall soybean meal market will rise sharply, with an increase of more than 40%. On November 13, the highest price of soybean meal will exceed the 5,600 RMB/ton mark, creating a 10-year historical high. The price will be more than double the price in 2015, and 1,300 RMB/ton higher than the 4,300 RMB/ton in 2013.
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the first wave of roller coaster market was in the first half of the year. After New Year's Day, the soybean meal market rose all the way from the beginning of the year to March 23. The highest price of soybean meal was 5,364 RMB/ton, an increase of more than 52%. After the market of soybean meal rose sharply in the first quarter, the market fell back. Since March 24, soybean meal entered a weak consolidation period, and the price fell all the way to the end of June. The average market price of soybean meal was 4,116 RMB/ton, a decline of 22.81%.
The second wave of roller coaster market is in the second half of the year. Soybean meal kept rising from July 1 to the end of November, with the highest price exceeding 5,500 RMB/ton, 208 RMB/ton higher than 5,364 RMB/ton on March 23 in the first half of the year. On July 1, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,118 RMB/ton, and on December 5, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,936 RMB/ton, up 19.86%.
Supply side: In January, the quantity of imported soybeans was at a high point. During the Spring Festival, due to the centralized shutdown and maintenance of soybean oil plants, the quantity of imported soybeans decreased in February. In February, it was at a low point, with only 5.09 million tons of imports. Since March, South American soybeans have been listed in succession, and the number of imported soybeans has been increasing. The number of imported soybeans in May was the highest in the year, and the number of imported soybeans in June has gradually decreased.
Since July, the quantity of imported soybeans for raw materials has declined steadily. From July to August, the quantity of imported soybeans was less than 8 million tons; In August, 7.16 million tons of soybeans were imported, a month on month decrease of 9%. The quantity of imported soybeans in September increased slightly compared with that in August, with 7.72 million tons imported. After the National Day holiday, the decline in the quantity of imported soybeans was particularly obvious, mainly due to the delay in the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong. The quantity of imported soybeans in October was only 4.4 million tons, down 19% year on year, the lowest monthly import since 2014.
Inventory: After the New Year's Day, the soybean oil plant was shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the soybean meal inventory remained low, at the first line of 300,000 tons. Since March, South American soybeans have been listed in succession, the number of imported soybeans has been increasing, the operating rate of soybean oil plants has risen, and the soybean meal inventory has increased gradually, until July, when the soybean meal inventory was at its maximum.
In July, due to the decline in the number of imported soybeans as raw materials, the operating rate of soybean oil plants continued to decline. In addition, the end feed industry entered the peak season, the purchase demand of feed plants increased, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline. In particular, after the National Day holiday, soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance in a centralized manner, and the supply became tight. The soybean meal inventory was constantly low. By the end of October, the soybean meal inventory had fallen for more than 4 months, down to the first line of 220,000 tons, down nearly four times from the peak of 1.07 million tons in July. In November, the tight situation of soybean meal inventory did not ease and continued to decline to about 130,000 tons. After December, the soybean meal inventory increased and returned to the first line of 200,000 tons.
Demand side: In 2022, China's industrial feed output will continue to grow. Except for the decline of feed output in the first quarter, feed output will begin to recover in the second quarter. From January to June 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China will be 136.53 million tons, 139.33 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. Since the third quarter, the boom of the terminal breeding industry has increased, and the demand for soybean meal purchased by feed factories has improved. The industrial feed output has been increasing from July to September. According to the data of China Feed Industry Association, the national industrial feed output in September 2022 will be 28.33 million tons, an increase of 7.5% month on month and 3.1% year on year. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for breeding. The profits of pig raising have rebounded, the enthusiasm of feed factories for stocking has increased, and the amount of soybean meal purchased has increased. In October, due to the tight supply of raw soybean meal, shortage and high price, the feed plants were difficult to start up and shut down for maintenance. Feed production began to decline slightly.
SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the soybean meal market will remain relatively strong in 2022 as a whole, with prices hitting new highs. In 2023, soybean meal market will still be affected by many factors, such as supply side, demand side, and external futures. The price will still fluctuate at a high level, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
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