According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, since November 10, when bad news came, the market of soybean meal was no longer popular. The channel of decline was opened, and the price fell sharply. On November 10, the average market price of soybean meal was 5,660 RMB/ ton; On November 21, the average market price of soybean meal was 5,134 RMB/ ton, down 9.29%.

There were two main reasons for the high market of soybean meal. First, the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong from the supply side increased, and the shortage of raw materials supply eased. Second, most of the demand side feed plants were shut down or the consumption of soybean meal was reduced, resulting in a sharp drop in the terminal demand for soybean meal.

On the supply side: as the soybean imported in October was only 4.14 million tons, which was at a historical low, the operating rate of soybean oil plants declined significantly. Since November, although the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong has decreased than expected, it is still significantly improved compared with October as a whole. It is estimated that imported soybeans will arrive at Hong Kong in November, with an estimated amount of 8 million tons. Raw material imports of soybeans increased, soybean meal supply improved, and the market fell.

Demand side: the supply of raw soybean meal is tight, the stock is out of stock, and the price remains high, which leads to the difficulty of starting the feed factory. "No rice is available for cooking", and one after another shuts down for maintenance. Feed production began to decline. According to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national industrial feed output in October was 26.72 million tons, down 5.7% month on month; The proportion of soybean meal in formulated feed and concentrated feed was 15.2%, down 0.2 percentage points month on month. Since November, the demand for soybean meal purchased by the terminal feed factory has continued to be low, and the soybean meal market has continued to fall.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that: the end of November and the beginning of December are the concentrated season for the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, and the supply of raw materials is loose. In addition, the soybean meal market is too high and the terminal acceptance is poor. It is expected that China soybean meal market in the future will still be weak.

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