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SunSirs: Vinyl Cyanide Market Fluctuated Widely in 2022, and May Continue to Weaken at the End of the Year-1
November 23 2022 13:22:11SunSirs(John)

Price trend

In 2022, the vinyl cyanide market rebounded after a decline from high levels, and the overall market fluctuated widely. The price at the beginning of the year was 14,560 RMB/toon, and the price at the end of the year was 10,940 RMB/toon, down 22.12% from the beginning of the year; During the year, the high point was 14,560 RMB/toon, the low point was 8,900 RMB/toon, and the amplitude was 38.87%.

The market trend of vinyl cyanide in 2022 is mainly divided into five stages:

The first stage: rapid decline stage.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of vinyl cyanide was 14,560 RMB/toon on January 1, 2022, and 11,800 RMB/toon as of January 17, a decline of 18.96% in the cycle. On the one hand, vinyl cyanide operated under high load. On the other hand, near the Spring Festival, the downstream market of ABS, acrylic fiber, nitrile rubber and other products was weak, and there was no significant increase in the start of construction, the demand for vinyl cyanide was weak. The price of vinyl cyanide fell sharply due to the contradiction between supply and demand.

The second stage: narrow amplitude oscillation stage.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of vinyl cyanide in the second stage started at 11,800 RMB/toon on January 17 and ended at 11,800 RMB/toon on April 18. The price was flat at the beginning and end of the stage. During the period, the high point was 11,920 RMB/toon, the low point was 11,260 RMB/toon, and the amplitude was 5.86%. Since the commissioning of new vinyl cyanide units totaling 1.04 million tons/year of Lihuayi and Selbang in the second half of 2021, the supply side of vinyl cyanide had been under pressure. However, since the Spring Festival in February, downstream ABS and others had started to improve, and the demand side of vinyl cyanide had been supported; In addition, since March, Korur and Shandong Haijiang had shut down 390,000 t/a units for maintenance, and Shanghai Secco had reduced the load of 520,000 t/a units to 50% of the load, reducing the pressure on the supply side. At the same time, the price of raw propylene had soared, and the cost support for vinyl cyanide was strong. The weak balance between supply and demand and the strong support of costs led to narrow fluctuations in the domestic vinyl cyanide price.

The third stage: sharp decline stage.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of vinyl cyanide fell from 11,800 RMB/toon on April 18 to 8,900 RMB/toon on August 31, a decline of 24.58%. During this period, the price of propylene as raw material decreased significantly, and the cost of vinyl cyanide decreased significantly; Downstream ABS, acrylic fiber, nitrile and other industries were in low season, and the demand side was insufficient; In addition, the impact of Tianchen Qixiang's 130,000 t/a new vinyl cyanide unit being put into production has resulted in sufficient supply of vinyl cyanide, which has led to a sharp decline in vinyl cyanide prices.

The fourth stage: rebound stage.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 21, the price of vinyl cyanide was 10,940 RMB/toon, up 22.92% from 8,900 RMB/toon at the end of August. The peak in the cycle was 11,590 RMB/toon on November 15, with an amplitude of 30.22%. Mainly due to the strong downstream demand, the downstream ABS, acrylic fiber and other industries had significantly increased their demand for vinyl cyanide; In addition, the price of raw materials rebounded slightly, and the cost of vinyl cyanide rose, driving the vinyl cyanide market to rebound significantly.

The fifth stage: the stage of falling after rising.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 21, the price of vinyl cyanide was 10,940 RMB/toon, down 5.61% from the price of 11,590 RMB/ton on November 15. Mainly affected by the supply and demand side: on the one hand, Liaoning Jinfa's 260,000 t/a vinyl cyanide new capacity was put into production at the end of October, which impacted the supply side; On the other hand, due to the end of the peak season and the impact of the epidemic situation, the high level of downstream construction fell slightly, and the demand support weakened.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com

 

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