Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, as of December 6, the average daily price of 304 / 2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) is 13,400 RMB/ton (including tax), which is 2,333 RMB/ton (including (Tax) fell slightly by 2.19% compared with December 2, 0.92% lower than the beginning of the year, and 2.34% lower than the same period last year.

Analysis review        

Product: Due to the news of the ban on mining this week, the negative sentiment has been basically digested, coupled with the weak downstream consumption, the nickel price has been oscillating and falling. As of this weekend, nickel fell 2.56% to 109,100 RMB/ton. Stainless steel has been falling since October. Domestic stainless steel has maintained high output in the first three quarters of this year, and steel plant warehouses and social stocks have climbed to historical highs. Therefore, the pressure of stainless steel destocking at the end of the year continues to affect the market. After entering November, domestic mainstream steel mills have gradually reduced their production. The price of stainless steel itself has fallen, which has negatively affected the demand for primary nickel and caused a certain drag on nickel prices. December is the traditional off-season of stainless steel consumption. After regular maintenance of stainless steel enterprises, stainless steel may enter a light situation of both supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, most domestic steel mills continued to reduce ex-factory prices.

Steel mill price adjustment: Wuxi Jiugang weekly disk price (12.3-12.9): 304 cold rolled edge cutting base price reported at 15,300 RMB/ton; down 100 RMB/ton; 430 cold rolled base price at 8,200 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton.

Industry dynamics: After years of losses, Brazilian miner Vale sold 95% of its new Caledonia nickel plant in Goro. It is reported that Vale will close its nickel refinery and stop its cobalt production, and the plant will focus on the production of nickel hydroxide cake for electric vehicle batteries. The company said that this year's nickel output is 23,000 tons, which is less than 60% of its target.

Macro dynamics: China ’s investment in real estate development from January to October increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the previous value was 10.5%. China ’s floor space of commercial housing sales increased by 0.1% year-on-year in January-October. The growth rate turned negative from positive to negative for the first time this year, and decreased by 0.1% from January to September.

Market outlook

The stainless steel analysts of SunSirs believe that the nickel has rebounded on the weekend, but demand is weak, some of the stocks are high, and pessimism is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the decline of stainless steel will be stable temporarily, but it is still weak.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.