Price trend
As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in October, from 5,933.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,600.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.24%.
On October 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 35.36, unchanged from the previous day, down 66.51% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and up 17.40% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, the overall isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in October, with a maximum weekly increase of 10.11%.
Analysis review
From the manufacturer's quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose slightly in October, and the manufacturer's inventory was average. Lihuayi isobutyraldehyde was quoted 6,600 RMB/ton at the end of the month, 800 RMB/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month; the isobutyraldehyde of Luxi Chemical Products distributed by Shandong Zhenkun was quoted at 6,600 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 800 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng offered 6,600 RMB/ton of isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month, up 400 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month.
From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde declined slightly in October. The price of propylene fell from 7,620.60 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 7,136.60 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.35%. A year-on-year decrease of 10.24%. The weakening of upstream cost support had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde price.
Downstream neopentyl glycol market fluctuated in a narrow range in October. The price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated around 10,066.67 RMB/ton. The downstream market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the downstream manufacturers were commonly enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde.
Market outlook
In the first half of November, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Upstream propylene prices fell slightly, and cost support weakened. However, there is a downward trend in the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream. Downstream factories are less active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.
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