The market of plasticizer rose sharply and fell sharply
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the plasticizer market rose and fell sharply in 2022. The highest prices of DOP and DOTP were 13,400 RMB/ton and 13,550 RMB/ton respectively, the lowest prices of DOP and DOTP were 8,775 RMB/ton and 8,975 RMB/ton respectively, and the price differenced were 4,625 RMB/ton and 4,575 RMB/ton respectively; The corresponding maximum price of DBP was 12,333.33 RMB/ton, the minimum price was 8,600 RMB/ton, and the price difference was 3,733.33 RMB/ton. The price difference between the highest and lowest prices of DBP was significantly lower than that of DOP and DOTP. The overall plasticizer market was choppy and the trend of DBP was relatively stable.
DBP capacity and operating rate
DBP capacity expanded to reach the peak of 1.05 million tons/year in 2015, and then the capacity contracted, and some units were in a long-term shutdown or unstable production state; By 2021, the DBP capacity shrank to 850,000 tons (including some long-term shutdown devices); In recent years, some small DBP enterprises have begun to withdraw from the market, and the capacity of DBP plants has shown signs of shrinking. However, due to the expansion of major large plants, the capacity of DBP plants is relatively stable. The overcapacity of plasticizer market was particularly prominent in 2022, and the operating rate of DOP and DOTP enterprises dropped from about 60% in previous years to less than 50% in 2022; However, the situation of DBP overcapacity is relatively stable. The operating rate of DBP enterprises is maintained at about 30% to 40% all the year round. With its unique performance and specific downstream, the market was relatively stable for the time being. The capacity and operating rate of DBP in 2022 did not change much compared with previous years.
Future market expectation
Analysts of DBP data from SunSirs believed that DBP could not completely exit the plasticizer industry in a short time. First of all, it has experienced time and quality inspection in the application of plastic processing fields such as film, leather products, wire and cable, footwear and other terminal products; Second, there is a certain gap between the application performance of some environment-friendly plasticizers and DBP in aging resistance, flexibility, etc. The decline in the proportion of DBP plasticizers will be the trend of the times, and the elimination or conversion of backward DBP production capacity will also be the mainstream of future enterprises. As the downstream demand, capacity and operating rate of DBP have been relatively stable in recent years, the future price trend of plasticizer DBP mainly depends on the price trend of raw materials PA and n-butanol. Recently, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol fell, and it is expected that the future DBP prices will fall in shock.
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