In September, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of September 30, the cobalt price was 346,300 RMB/ton, down 1.20% from 350,500 RMB/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, the cobalt price fell first and then rose. The domestic cobalt market demand was poor and the supply increased. The pressure on the cobalt price to fall increased. However, the international cobalt price continued to rise, which was good for the domestic cobalt market. The domestic cobalt price rebounded slightly.

Analysis review

New energy vehicle market

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 691,000 and 666,000 respectively, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high, with production and sales increasing 1.2 times and 1 times respectively year on year.In August, new energy vehicles achieved such performance. In addition to the government's policy stimulus to stabilize the economy and promote consumption, the early order fulfillment and the replacement of fuel vehicles brought about by high oil prices are important reasons. In the future, the traditional golden September and silver October consumption seasons will still stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles, but the oil price returns to the 7th era, and the replacement of fuel vehicles is delayed. The growth of new energy vehicles may not be as expected.

According to the data released by China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of output, in August, China's power battery output totaled 50.1 GWh, of which the output of ternary battery was 19.3GWh, accounting for 38.4% of the total output. In terms of vehicle loading, in August, the power battery loading in China was 27.8GWh, including 10.5GWh for ternary batteries, accounting for 37.9% of the total vehicle loading. In August, the output of ternary batteries increased steadily and reached a new monthly high, but compared with the growth rate of power battery output, the performance of ternary batteries was slightly insufficient; In terms of installed capacity, the installed capacity of ternary battery in August has not reached the level of installed capacity in June, the demand growth of cobalt market is less than expected, and the support for cobalt price rise is limited.

Mobile phone market demand declined

According to the latest data report released by IDC, it is predicted that the smartphone shipments will decline by 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022. The most significant drop in sales is in China, which is currently expected to decline by 12.5%, about 41 million units, accounting for nearly half of this year's total sales decline. According to the data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications, from January to July 2022, the overall shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 156 million, down 23.0% year on year. The sharp drop in mobile phone sales has had a fatal impact on the demand of the cobalt market. The demand of the cobalt market has declined significantly, and the downward pressure on the cobalt price is great. However, the golden September and silver October consumption peak seasons may stimulate mobile phone consumption, and the future mobile phone market is expected to recover.

Import volume of cobalt raw materials

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in August 2022, China's cobalt raw material imports totaled 11,000 tons of metal tons, up 66% year on year. From January to August 2022, China's cobalt raw material imports totaled 66,700 tons of metal tons. The import of cobalt raw materials increased, the supply of cobalt market increased, and the upward momentum of cobalt market weakened.

MB cobalt price rose in September

It can be seen from the MB cobalt price trend chart that the MB cobalt price rose in shock in September. Although the cobalt price fell briefly from time to time, it was still difficult to hide the rising trend. The international cobalt market rose, while the domestic cobalt market was good.

Market outlook

According to the data analysts of SunSirs, power supply in Sichuan was basically restored at the end of August and early September, new energy industry chain enterprises resumed construction one after another, the supply of cobalt market resumed, the rise of cobalt price lost support, and the cobalt price fell; The sharp increase in sales of new energy vehicles and the decline in mobile phone consumption did not exceed market expectations, and the increase in imports of cobalt raw materials did not fundamentally change the supply and demand balance of the domestic cobalt market, with limited support for the rise in cobalt prices. In the future, the growth of mobile phone sales is expected to be limited, the growth of new energy vehicles is relatively balanced with the supply and demand of cobalt raw material imports, and the support for cobalt market growth is limited. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize in the future. However, the increase in the export of new energy vehicles may lead to a surge in demand in the domestic cobalt market in the future. The domestic cobalt market is in short supply. The future market should focus on the production and export of new energy vehicles and the import of cobalt raw materials.

If you have any questions, please fee l free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com