Price trend
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of September 27, the average price of silicone DMC market quotations in mainstream areas in China was 18,200 RMB/ton, compared with the price on September 1, 2022 (reference price 19,640 RMB/ton), the price was lowered by 1,440 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.33%.
Analysis review
It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of SunSirs that from September 1 to 27 (9.1-9.27), the overall domestic silicone DMC market showed a weak decline. In the first ten days of September, on the 2nd and 3rd, the domestic silicone DMC market went down as a whole. Starting from the 5th, driven by the upward trend of the raw metal silicon market, the silicone DMC market price also recovered slightly. As of September 9, the domestic silicone DMC market price was around 19,480 RMB/ton, and then the market was stable and running.
Until after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the overall silicone DMC market experienced a cold and downturn, the trading atmosphere on the market was light, the demand side was cautious, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. On the 14th, some factories were under pressure to reduce the price of silicone DMC by 300-500 RMB/ton. As of September 15, the domestic silicone DMC market price was around 18,800-19,500 RMB/ton. In early September, silicone The DMC market as a whole ended in a downtrend, down 1.02% in half a month.
In late September, the silicone DMC market continued to decline, and the demand-side response was insufficient. Some silicone DMC factories were actively shipping, and the price of silicone DMC was lowered one after another under pressure. However, the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream remains unabated, some of them replenished on dips, and the order received by the silicone DMC factory was not good. On September 22, the price of silicone DMC in Shandong's big factory fell to 18,000 RMB/ton. Other factories also followed the decline. The leading monomer factories maintained stable prices, and the price difference between high and low prices in the market was large. However, the downstream demand was still lower than expected, and the market continued to operate weakly. Some silicone DMC factories continued to exchange price for volume. On September 26, the price of silicone DMC in Shandong factories fell to around 17,400 RMB/ton. The market price of silicone DMC referred to around 17,400-18,800 RMB/ton, a drop of 6.38% in late September.
In terms of upstream silicon metal, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic silicon metal (name: 441#) market remained stable as a whole. According to the data monitoring ofSunSirs, on September 15, the reference price of metal silicon was 20,710.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.88% compared with the price on September 1 (19,560.00 RMB/ton).
Market outlook
From the current point of view, the contradiction between supply and demand in the silicone DMC market is relatively obvious. The National Day holiday is coming soon, and logistics will be limited in succession. Some factories have lowered the price of silicone DMC to a low point for pre-holiday shipments. The market continues to decline before the holiday, and the pressure is already heavy. In addition, the downstream has repeatedly waited and watched, and many should be able to stock up on dips before the holiday. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data engineer of SunSirs believes that it is unlikely that the domestic organic silicon DMC market will continue to decline sharply before the holiday. It is likely that the operation will be dominated by range adjustment in the stable state, and more attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.
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