Price trend
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in East China has been fluctuating and consolidating recently, and the price was 394.00 RMB/ton. The current price dropped by 32.57% year-on-year.
Analysis review
Recently, cement prices in some parts of East China fluctuated and consolidated. From the monitoring data of SunSirs, we can see that the cement market has fluctuated slightly recently, but has generally remained stable. From January to August 2022, the national cement output was 1.355 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the national cement output was 188 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. At present, some areas are implementing staggered production policies, and cement companies have further increased production restrictions, which has formed a certain support for the rise in cement prices. And next, the increase in demand for infrastructure construction will drive the demand for cement to resume growth. It is expected that the cement market will mainly rise.
The coke market has been running stably recently. The operating rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The overall shipment of coke enterprises is relatively good, and the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Although some steel mills started the second round of promotion and reduction in the early stage, in view of the current low overall profits of coking enterprises and the expected increase in the price of raw coking coal, the coking enterprises have certain support in terms of cost, so the second round of promotion and reduction has not been implemented. In terms of downstream steel mills, the finished product market has been volatile recently, and there is no expected improvement in terminal demand for the time being. The profits of steel mills are low. At present, coke purchases are mainly on demand. Most steel mills control coke purchases. At present, the inventory in the factory is at a medium level. In the future, SunSirs believes that the current coke market still has certain support, and the downstream demand has not changed much. It is expected that the coke market will maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. The market outlook will focus on coke inventories in various links, the profits of coking steel companies, the price trend of coking coal and the sales of downstream finished products.
Downstream: From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 8.8454 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that from January to July. Among them, residential investment was 6,545.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.2 percentage points. From January to August, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8,397.34 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to July. Among them, the residential construction area was 5,922.16 million square meters, an increase of 4.3%. The newly started area of housing was 1,399.17 million square meters, down 3.6%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points. Among them, the newly started residential area was 1,024.86 million square meters, down 4.3%. The completed area of housing was 371.07 million square meters, down 10.8%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points. Among them, the completed residential area was 264.98 million square meters, down 9.7%.
Market outlook
According to the forecast of SunSirs, the traditional peak sales season "Golden September, Silver October" is coming, market demand has recovered, and cement shipments have rebounded. Therefore, the cement product analyst of SunSirs believes that in a short period of time, the cement market will mainly rise.
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