Price trend

On September 19, the domestic futures market closed, and most commodity futures fell, led by energy and chemical products. Among them, PTA fell by more than 3%. The spot price of PTA followed the decline. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market on September 19 was 6,579 RMB/ton, down 2.02% from the previous trading day and up 33.10% year-on-year.

Analysis review

In terms of installations, with the restart of Chuanneng Chemical's 1 million-ton plant after a short-term shutdown, the two 3.3 million-ton plants of Yisheng New Materials increased the load to 80%, and the PTA load increased to more than 70%. However, in general, the PTA spot is still relatively small and continues to be destocked. According to statistics, as of September 15, the domestic PTA social inventory was 2,025,900 tons.

In the crude oil market, there is a game between the positive side of the supply side and the negative side of the demand side. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more and more serious, and the oil price is subject to increased interference factors, which will further aggravate the volatility of the oil market. PX's own supply and demand remained tight, making PTA's cost-end support relatively strong.

Recently, as the high temperature weather gradually eased, the terminal weaving start-up load continued to rise, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was over 71%. However, the willingness of weaving to stock up on raw materials is difficult to reach the level of previous years even in "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, the demand side of polyester remains flat, resulting in increased pressure on polyester factories to destock, and it is difficult to effectively increase the start of production.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that although some devices have restarted or increased their loads recently, it is unlikely that the supply of PTA will increase significantly in the short term, which will still support the price of PTA. However, the sustainability of the warming of the downstream demand side remains to be further observed.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.