Price data
According to the data of SunSirs, as of August 30, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6,566.00 RMB/ ton, compared with 6,510.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month, an overall increase of 0.86%.
On August 30, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.98, an increase of 0.2 points from the previous day, a decrease of 2.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 135.70 points (2022-06-21), and a low of 46.08 points from the lowest point on August 15, 2016 Up 188.59%. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
In August, the domestic fuel oil 180CST price fluctuated and rose, the domestic ship oil raw material price was high as a whole, and the fuel oil 180CST cost support was limited. According to SunSirs, as of August 30, the price of 180CST fuel oil from Zhoushan District of China National combustion Corporation was 6,550 RMB/ ton, and the price of 120CST fuel oil from Zhoushan district was 6,650 RMB/ ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6,580 RMB/ ton, and the price of 120CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6,680 RMB/ ton.
In August, the trend of international crude oil prices declined. The main reason for the decline in crude oil prices was the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data was generally weak, which once again caused the market to worry about the global recession. , In addition, the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the supply shortage is expected to ease, making international oil prices under pressure. Finally, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran is expected to add about 1.3 million bpd of additional production capacity within six months of the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal, which is also some reversal of the market's perception of tighter supply expectations, International oil prices fell. International oil prices rebounded in late August, on the one hand, the US inventory data support. In addition, on Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department released strong economic data, and demand for refined oil products remained strong, diluting concerns about slowing fuel demand due to economic recession risks.
Singapore fuel inventories increased, limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Enterprise Singapore (ESG): As of the week of August 24, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.476 million barrels, reaching a seven week high of 21.088 million barrels, Singapore's light distillate oil inventory increased by 650,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 17.349 million barrels, and Singapore's medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 571,000 barrels to an 11 week low of 7.231 million barrels.
Market forecast
International crude oil prices fluctuated downward in August, which provided limited support to the domestic ship fuel market. At the end of the month, the domestic fuel oil raw material prices rose, supporting the ship fuel market. However, at present, the terminal demand in the market is general, the receiving of goods is limited, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the downstream receiving goods are cautious, and the overall transaction in the market is light, and the purchase is mainly just needed. At present, the market price of 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil is around 6,500-6,600 RMB/ ton, and the market price of 120CST low-sulfur fuel oil is around 6,600-6,700 RMB/ ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market in China will be dominated by consolidation in the near future.
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