According to the data of SunSirs, as of August 21, the average price of China domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6,520.00 RMB/ ton (tax included), which was stable compared with the price of 6,520.00 RMB/ ton on August 15.
On August 21, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.05, which was the same as that of the previous day, down 2.69% from the highest point of 135.70 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 186.57% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)
The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is limited. According to SunSirs, as of August 21, the price of 180CST self-contained low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan District of China National combustion Corporation was 6,550 RMB/ ton, and the price of 120CST self-contained low sulfur fuel oil was 6,650 RMB/ ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6,450 RMB/ ton, and the price of 120CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6,550 RMB/ ton.
The international crude oil price fluctuated. On one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which once again triggered the market's concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which made the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (JMMC) decided to increase production by 100,000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648,000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC+ actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels/ day. This is also a reversal of the market's view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.
The decrease of fuel oil inventory in Singapore supports the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development bureau (ESG): as of the week of August 17, Singapore's light distillate oil inventory dropped 968,000 barrels to a four week low of 16.699 million barrels; The inventory of medium distillate increased by 400,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 7.802 million barrels.
Market forecast: at present, the ship fuel cost is strong, which has a boosting effect on the ship fuel market. The domestic ship fuel market is mainly on the sidelines, and the transaction is cautious. The terminal demand is not significantly favorable, and the purchase is just needed. Last week, the overall price of ship fuel market remained stable. At present, the market price of 180CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6,500 RMB/ ton, and the market price of 120CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6,600 RMB/ ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market in China will be sorted out in the near future.
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