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SunSirs: The Retail Price of Refined Oil this Round may Achieve "Five Consecutive Falls"
August 19 2022 09:54:20SunSirs(Selena)

This round of price adjustment of domestic refined oil started on August 23 and 24. The retail price of domestic refined oil may be reduced again. Since 2022, the price of refined oil has been adjusted 15 times, with 10 times of increase and 5 times of decrease. The change rate of crude oil in this round is negative, and the retail price of refined oil may face "five consecutive drops".

Entering the current pricing cycle, the international crude oil change rate has a negative start. The international oil price has dropped sharply in the two working days at the beginning of this week. The negative value of the crude oil change rate has increased, and the retail price of refined oil will be reduced. As of July 17, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.11/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $93.65/barrel. The oil price fell sharply in the previous three trading days. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which once again triggered the market's concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the negotiation results of the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, The supply tension is expected to ease, putting pressure on international oil prices. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (JMMC) decided to increase production by 100,000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648,000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market's view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined. As of the 17th, the change rate of comprehensive crude oil varieties was -4.91%, and the zero price of this round of product oil was reduced again.

Recently, the domestic wholesale price of refined oil has risen, but the wholesale supply of refined oil is slightly tight due to the shutdown and maintenance of some refining units. In addition, the demand for gasoline and diesel is good, and the price of gasoline and diesel has increased. Recently, the supply of domestic refined oil has decreased, the operation in Shandong Province has declined, the operation rate of domestic main refineries has not changed much, the epidemic situation in some areas has been repeated, and the demand for gasoline is not as expected. However, during the summer vacation, the number of car trips has increased, and the demand for gasoline is acceptable; The domestic temperature has declined, the construction of outdoor engineering infrastructure and other industries has increased, and the fishing moratorium in coastal areas has gradually ended, the diesel export orders have increased, the diesel demand has increased, and the price of gasoline and diesel in the field has risen. The operating rate of local refineries and main refineries declined slightly, the inventory of refineries decreased, and the prices of gasoline and diesel oil in various regions increased by varying degrees. As of the 18th, the price of diesel oil was 8,270.4 RMB/ ton, and the price of gasoline was 8,956.4 RMB/ ton. Recently, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong's main refineries has dropped to about 63%, and the overall price of product oil has risen due to the influence of supply and demand.

In the later stage, the supply and demand of crude oil are intertwined. On the one hand, the supply tension has not changed, which still supports the oil price. However, in the medium term, the upward inflation and economic downturn may gradually bring pressure on demand. Stagflation and recession may bring bad news to the stock market and commodity market, and the oil price will also be under pressure. In the short term, the international oil price will be under pressure, and the domestic demand for gasoline and diesel will rise. However, the increase at the beginning of this week is too large. It is difficult for China domestic gasoline and diesel market to continue to rise in the short term, and the price may fall slightly.

 

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