Price data
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of July 31, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8,173.33 RMB/ ton, down 1.76% from 8,320.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of July, and the ground refined hydrogenated naphtha fell as a whole.
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of July 31, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8,017.50 RMB/ ton, down 1.44% from 8,135.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of July, and the price of ground refined straight run naphtha fell as a whole.
On July 31, the naphtha commodity index was 100.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.07% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 138.80% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of influencing factors
Product: in July, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated downward. At present, the mainstream price of refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8,100 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8,000 RMB/ ton. In July, the international crude oil fluctuated downward, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of July 27, Singapore's fuel oil storage fell by 1.756 million barrels to an 11 week low of 18.046 million barrels. Singapore's light distillate oil inventory jumped by 1.815 million barrels, hitting a record high of 18.021 million barrels. Singapore's medium distillate stocks fell 826,000 barrels to a seven week low of 7.244 million barrels.
Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in July. On the one hand, the EIA inventory data of the United States showed that the node refined oil unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. In addition, Beixi No.1 was restarted, and the easing of the European energy crisis brought bad news to the oil market. In addition, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand. It can be seen that the oil market long and short performance is quite sticky. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, controlling inflation will bring downward pressure on all kinds of risky assets. On the other hand, the peak driving season in August in the United States may come to an end. According to the latest data, gasoline inventories in the United States have increased unexpectedly in the recent week, which also indicates that demand may end ahead of schedule. In addition, the repeated outbreaks in Asia and the blockade measures may bring some pressure to the oil market.
Downstream: toluene fell violently in July, and the price fell broadly. The price of toluene was 8,900 RMB/ ton on July 1 and 7,640 RMB/ ton on July 28, down 14.16% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene fell violently in July, with a small decline on the whole. On July 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8,470 RMB/ ton; On July 28, the price was 8,160 RMB/ ton, down 3.66% from the beginning of the month. The price of p-xylene declined in July. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9,550 RMB/ ton, down 4.50% from the price of 10,000 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.
Market forecast
According to the energy analysts of SunSirs, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward in July, the naphtha cost support was limited, the refined oil market was weak, and the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, a small amount of ethylene and reforming demand were released, and the terminal demand was not significantly good. The market was cautious to catch up, and refineries reduced prices and shipped goods. It is expected that China naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by weak consolidation.
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