- Market Trend
In the middle November, the domestic coking coal market gradually stopped falling and stabilized, showing the bottom characteristics. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, from November 11 to November 22, coking coal did not continue to decline for two weeks, but there was a horizontal trend, with a rise and fall range of 0, mainly due to the stable annual long-term price of coking coal in 2020, two consecutive mining disasters in Shanxi and Shandong, restrictions of coal import policy, and good steel market performance and other news. At present, the price range including tax is 1,360-1,500 RMB/ton.
In terms of each region, the price in Hebei mainly stops falling. At present, the price including tax is maintained at 1,480-1,500 RMB/ton, and the price in Shanxi is also stable. In addition, the price in Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other regions also maintains the level at the beginning of the month. The supply and demand sides of the market maintain a basic balance, but with the improvement of the fundamentals, the supply benefits gradually appear, and the demand side also increases compared with the beginning of the month.
- Market Analysis
In terms of supply, the recent frequent mine disasters, the increase of coal mine security at the end of the year, coupled with the tightening of import policies, multiple advantages appear in the supply side of coking coal. Secondly, the recent market rumors that domestic coal import policy will be significantly tightened. By October, 276 million tons of coal had been imported in the year, slightly lower than the 281 million tons imported in the whole year last year. If the coal import policy is stricter, the import quota will be greatly reduced by the year before.
On the demand side, the macro side is good, and the resilience of downstream real estate appears again. From January to October, the national real estate development investment completed was 10,960.3 billion RMB, up 10.30% year on year. At the same time, from January to October, the new construction area of the house was 185,634 ㎡, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10.00%. In October, the year-on-year growth of 23.23%, a new high in recent years, far exceeding the market expectation. The recovery of real estate demand will directly drive the price of steel to rise, which will benefit the black industry chain and bring a certain demand increase to the coking coal market.
- Market Forecast
According to coking coal analysts of SunSirs, at present, the supply and demand of coking coal has reversed the negative market in the early stage. The increase of coal mine security inspection at the end of the year will limit part of the output, and the tightening of import coal policy will also affect part of the supply. In addition, the enthusiasm of the downstream winter storage and replenishment will increase, and other factors will affect the price of coking coal, which is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and may usher in a small rebound in the near future 。
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com .