1、 Trend analysis
According to the nickel price monitoring of the SunSirs, the nickel price mainly fell last week. As of June 24, the spot nickel price was 188816.67 RMB/ton, down 9.11% from 207750 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, up 39.59% year-on-year.
According to the business agency, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have risen by 5 and fell by 7, and the recent trend of nickel prices has continued to fall.
The initial value of manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States fell in June than expected, indicating that the demand for industrial products shrank significantly in June, intensifying the market's concern about the economic downturn. Recently, the "copper oil ratio" has continued to decline, and has fallen to the lowest level in recent five years, indicating that the risk of economic recession has intensified. On the whole, under the conditions of tight liquidity and continuous fermentation of economic recession concerns, the nonferrous metals sector has fallen sharply, and the nickel price has also fallen sharply.
The rainy season in the Philippines has passed, and a large number of nickel ore shipments have been started. Indonesia's nickel pig iron production has increased at the pace of 2000-3000 metal tons per month since 2021.
In the future, Indonesia's capacity investment will continue. The expansion of the scale of converting nickel pig iron to high matte and the release of the output of wet process intermediates.
In the downstream, affected by the domestic epidemic in the first two months, the maintenance and production of stainless steel in the main downstream of nickel decreased, while the growth rate of ternary material production also slowed down significantly. The demand for stainless steel and ternary material is weakening, and the nickel is likely to be in surplus in the second half of the year. From the perspective of nickel supply and demand balance, it is expected that the global nickel supply will change from shortage to relaxation from the second quarter, and the global nickel supply surplus will reach 108000 tons in 2022. However, the inventory of lunni has declined continuously recently. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly.
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