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SunSirs: Frequent Fluctuations in Wood Pulp Prices are expected to Face Repeated Short-term upward Movements in August
September 03 2019 17:30:39SunSirs(Selena)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market of wood pulp was still not much improved in August. The price of coniferous wood pulp showed a trend of rising and falling, while that of broad-leaved wood pulp restored to a stable level after a downward period. The average price of coniferous pulp on August 29 was 4607.50 RMB/ton, up 0.71% compared with the beginning of the month. On August 29, the average price of hardwood pulp was 3962.50 RMB/ton, which was - 5.09% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

 

Products:

From the observation of market changes, the pulp market continued to be depressed at the beginning of August. Due to the obvious off-season atmosphere, the volume of wood pulp was difficult to increase, which made the price of wood pulp go down under pressure, while the price of broad-leaved wood pulp went down by a large margin, and then the price showed a narrow consolidation trend. Prices rose slightly in mid-August, but the overall volatility was not large. Near the end of the month, due to the impact of futures prices and paper prices upstream, spot prices ushered in a wave of rise.

 

Industry Chain:

The market trend of wood pulp in August is undulating. The spot price of coniferous pulp has been fluctuating in the range of 4500-4600 RMB/ton due to the pressure of strong supply, weak demand and high inventory. The downstream market performance continued to be sluggish, and the demand momentum continued to be inadequate. August is a transitional period between the low and the high season in the paper industry. After that, the spring textbook order and the year-end packaging paper consumption demand will be in the high season. However, at present, the downstream pulp purchasing enthusiasm is still low, and the weak demand situation has not been reversed.

Industry:

Coniferous wood pulp prices rose twice in mid-month and late-month in August. The rise in mid-month prices was partly due to the influence of RMB exchange rate, which increased the cost of wood pulp import or supported domestic wood pulp prices. Another part of the reason may be the technical rebound after the previous consecutive decline. The price increase at the end of the month was mainly affected by the improvement of the downstream cultural paper market. The transaction price was stable and bullish. In addition, the demand for teaching materials and holiday packaging paper products increased in the opening season, and the market demand increased slightly, which boosted the wood pulp market. The impact of the recent Amazon rainforest fire has also caused some concern about the import and supply of wood pulp in China, but in the short term, the impact is not significant. Inventory pressure in hardwood pulp market still exists, and the purchasing atmosphere is flat, so prices tend to stabilize after falling to a low level.

 

On the futures side, the opening price of 2001 main contract of pulp futures on August 29 was 4768 RMB/ton, the reference settlement price was 4756 RMB/ton, and the settlement price was 4766 RMB/ton yesterday, with trading 406,626 hands and holding 312,242 hands.

 

Forecast:

According to the business association wood pulp analysts, the market demand of wood pulp has increased and the peak season pattern of the market is relatively apparent due to the frequent price increase letters of downstream paper products at the end of August. However, the downstream paper mills still mainly consume the stock of raw materials in the early stage. Whether the future market price can rise depends on whether the effect of price increase of finished paper can be implemented. It is expected that the short-term price rise of wood pulp will face repeated.

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