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SunSirs: Commodity Chemicals: After The Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Conference, Where Does Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Go? (November 1-18)
November 19 2019 13:50:28SunSirs(Daisy)

Recently, the 20th domestic high-concentration phosphate compound fertilizer production and sales meeting was grandly opened in Qingdao, Shandong Province. Industry people gathered in Qingdao to discuss relevant issues. At present, the phosphorus compound fertilizer conference has ended, and the winter storage market has also kicked off.

1. Price Trend

According to the data from SunSirs, the average price of 64% diammonium on November 18 is 2,335 RMB/ton. Compared with that price on November 1 (2,366.67 RMB/ton), it decreases by 1.34%. On November 18, the diammonium phosphate (DAP) commodity index is 69.65, which is the same as yesterday, setting a historical low in the cycle. It is 32.37% lower than the highest point at 102.98 on October 08, 2011 (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2011 to date)

2. Market Analysis

Products: Due to the decline in raw material price and the squeeze from the international market, the DAP market continues to be sluggish and weak. The operating rate of enterprises is insufficient, and some enterprises are under inspected and repaired. At present, the mainstream price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 2,250-2,400 RMB/ton, in Shandong is 2,200-2,400 RMB/ton, and in Yungui area is 2,300-2,500 RMB/ton. The regional 64% diammonium mainstream factory price is about 2,250-2,450 RMB/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic sulfur market is weakly sideways. The demand of downstream is poor especially terminal downstream’s enthusiasm for purchasing and entering market is quite weak. Plus, there is no news in the outer disk. The port inventory has continued to increase instead of decreasing. The industry has obvious bearish sentiment towards the market. In the demand side, the performance of both supply and demand is poor. Negotiations are deadlocked. Port stocks increases while the speed of consumption is slow. Market transactions remains deserted, and on-demand purchases dominated the market. Buyers and sellers are awaiting news guidance. Phosphate ore market has been in a weak state of sideways. Demand is still weak with few trading in the market. Enterprises are sporadically supplying old customers’ orders, continuing to digest inventories. New orders are scarce, and mining inventory pressure has been relatively large. Under such pressure, most of the mining enterprises and distributors have adjusted the quotation of high-grade phosphate ore, and the price of mining enterprises has both increased and decreased.

Industry: According to the data from SunSirs, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there were 19 kinds of commodities with an increase in the chemical sector. Among them, there are 2 kinds of commodities that rise by more than 5%, accounting for more than 2.4% of the number of monitored commodities. The top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain ratio. 2 out of 27 have a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored products in the sector. The top 3 products are epichlorohydrin (-9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%) and titanium dioxide (-3.58%). This week's average price increase was 0.18%.

3. Market Forecasting

Analysts of DAP in SunSirs believe that the market price of diammonium, that is raw material, is declining. And the international market is decadent. After the meeting of Phosphate Compound Fertilizer, the market is still not clear. The dealers lack confidence and wait for new policies to be introduced. The price of Diammonium is now in a low position with limited space to further decline. It is expected that the market for DAP will remain stable in the later period, and it is recommended to pay attention to market changes in real time.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

 

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